Anthony Davis over 2.5 turnovers (-145) vs. Raptors
The streets are filled with people discussing the hottest turnover props on the market. This is what betting on sports is all about. Here's why I'm targeting this one: Over the past month, the Raptors have the third-highest opponent TOV% in the NBA, and Davis has been coughing the ball up lately without LeBron James around. AD has 20 turnovers in his past four games and accounted for 54% of the Lakers' turnovers on Tuesday.
Fred VanVleet over 3.5 threes (+140) at Lakers I'm hitting this game a third time. Here, I'm targeting some significant plus money on VanVleet drilling four triples. He's a streaky three-point shooter, but he's taking 9.5 attempts per game across his past 10, and 43% of his overall shots attempts are non-corner threes. That's been a weakness for the Lakers, who are allowing the third-most shots from that location in halfcourt defense over the past month.
Mikal Bridges over 23.5 points (-120) at Minnesota Bridges is coming off a weird game against Milwaukee on Thursday where he played but was rested during the second half. I'm going to assume he's due for a full workload Friday. Over the past month, Minnesota allows the second-most mid-range shot attempts (in halfcourt defense) in the NBA, and that's where Bridges has taken exactly 50% of his shots as a member of the Nets. With Rudy Gobert protecting the rim in a drop coverage, a stop-and-pop mid-ranger like Bridges can get clean looks all day. Even including his 12-minute outing against the Bucks, Bridges is averaging 25.0 PPG since the All-Star break. Bogdan Bogdanovic over 11.5 points at Washington (-120) Double-bogey has been playing well lately, averaging 12.8 points per game over his last seven games, despite coming off the bench. The Hawks are thin in the backcourt after stars Young and Murray, with Bogdanovic seeing 25.2 minutes and 8.8 field goal attempts over those seven games. Washington's defense on the wing is weak with an oft-injured Bradley Beal and offense-oriented Kyle Kuzma. Washington ranks 22nd in points allowed to shooting guards with 23.8 per game.
Anthony Edwards o2.5 three-pointers made (-115), PointsBet
On Tuesday, we ran this play and Anthony Edwards hit the over in the first half. Thus, it’s only right that we run it back with him tonight. Entering play, Edwards has attempted at least seven shots from beyond-the-arc in six of his last seven games overall, including each of his three home games in that span. Edwards typically has much more stable volume from the perimeter at home, where he is shooting 7.9 attempts per game this season, compared to 6.7 three-point attempts per game on the road. Tonight, he gets a favorable matchup against a Brooklyn Nets defense that ranks 22nd in opponent three-point percentage across the last month of action. Trust Edwards to deliver for us again in this spot.
Clint Capela o11.5 points (-120), DraftKings
According to props.cash, Clint Capela is 29 for 50 to the over at this market number this season, and 21 for 31 to the over since November 30. In two games against the Washington Wizards this year, Capela has gone for 13 points both times, despite not having outstanding volume in either affair. The reason for this is due to Washington’s inability to defend around the rim at a high level. Since February 1, the Wizards rank 26th out of 30 teams in opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area. On the season, Capela is averaging 8.6 field goal attempts per game, 7.1 of which are coming in the restricted area. Each of the last six centers who have had a points prop released against Washington have hit the over – expect that trend to continue on Friday.
Aaron Gordon o2.5 assists (-130), DraftKings
Entering play, Aaron Gordon has eclipsed this market number in 18 of his last 25 contests, including 13 of his last 18 road games. According to props.cash, Aaron Gordon has recorded at least three assists in each of his seven road games, during which he is averaging 5.1 potential assists. Tonight, he gets a favorable matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, which rank 28th in opponent assists per game on their home floor this year. Expect Gordon to have another few dimes this evening – take the over.