NBA Player Props, March 11, 2023
DeMar DeRozan o22.5 points (-115), BetMGM
DeMar DeRozan has been much more potent offensively in his 30 road games this season, averaging 26.0 points, compared to 23.8 points in his 30 home contests. Tonight, DeRozan gets an incredibly favorable matchup on the road against the Houston Rockets, which rank 29th in defensive efficiency, 25th in opponent field goal percentage, 28th in opponent three-point percentage, and 19th in opponent free throw attempts per game across the last month of action. DeRozan has eclipsed this market number in 19 of 30 games away from home this season – expect him to get the job done in this spot.
Klay Thompson o23.5 points (-115), PointsBet
Klay Thompson has been a completely different player in his 30 home games this season, averaging 24.4 points on 44.1% shooting, compared to his 25 road games, where he is averaging 19.0 points on 41.9% shooting. Thompson’s home and away splits are something that has held constant throughout his career, with him consistently performing better in his home building. Tonight, Thompson does not have the most favorable matchup on the docket – facing a talented Milwaukee Bucks defense. However, one of Milwaukee’s primary defensive deficiencies has been against opposing shooting guards. In the first 10 days of March, the Bucks have allowed 26 points to Spencer Dinwiddie, 28 points to Cole Anthony, 26 points to Tyrese Maxey, 38 points to James Harden, and 33 points to Bradley Beal. Thompson is more talented than each of those players. Expect him to play well in front of the home fans, and for the over to have a great chance to cash here.
Deandre Ayton o18.5 points (-120), BetMGM
Deandre Ayton is nobody’s favorite player to wager on, but he enters play this evening, somehow, averaging 18.2 points per game for the season. Tonight, he gets an extremely favorable matchup against the Sacramento Kings, which struggle mightily to defend around the rim. On the season, Sacramento ranks 27th in opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area and 26th in opponent field goal percentage in the paint. In 57 games played this year, Ayton is averaging 13.4 field goal attempts per game – 10.4 of which are coming in the restricted area or the paint. Do not expect this to be easy, but Ayton is set up for success on Saturday if he has the motivation to play well.