NBA Player Props – Sunday, April 16, 2023
Giannis Antetokounmpo o29.5 points (-111), FanDuel
According to props.cash, Giannis Antetokounmpo eclipsed this market number in 39 of his 63 games played overall during the regular season, including 25 of 32 games played at home. This year, Antetokounmpo averaged 20.3 shot attempts per game – 14.5 of which came in the restricted area or the paint. The Miami Heat ranked 26th in opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area and 30th in opponent field goal percentage in the paint this season. Across the last month of the season, Miami ranked 30th in opponent field goal percentage in both areas of the floor. Antetokounmpo has averaged more than 30 points per game in each of the last two postseasons. Expect him to be aggressive once again on Sunday as the Milwaukee Bucks look to take care of business in Game 1.
Russell Westbrook u31.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115), PointsBet
In 73 games played this season, Russell Westbrook eclipsed this market number only 35 times. On the road, Westbrook eclipsed this market number only 14 times in 34 games played. This year, Westbrook averaged fewer points per game, was less efficient from the floor, and less efficient from beyond the arc when playing on the road compared to playing at home. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Phoenix Suns ranked in the 97th percentile in defensive efficiency with Kevin Durant on the floor in a sample size of 547 possessions. Factor in that Westbrook frequently gets benched late in games and we have a recipe for an under – potentially an easy under.
NBA DFS Pick’em
LeBron James less than 22.5 field goals attempted, PrizePicks
Last time we saw LeBron James in the postseason, he attempted fewer than 23 field goal attempts in five of the six games that he played against the Phoenix Suns. In 21 playoff games the year before, James attempted fewer than 23 field goal attempts in 17 games. Following a month-long absence due to injury, James returned to the court near the end of March, and then attempted 23 or fewer shots in six of his final eight regular season contests. Simply, there is no justification for this market number being so high.