Mavericks moneyline (-125) at Cavaliers – DraftKings, 3:35 PM CT
The Mavericks are on the second night of a back-to-back here, but I don't mind. They easily took care of the Lakers last night, and Doncic only needed to play 30 minutes. Spencer Dinwiddie is out but that's not a huge deal when compared to the absences of both Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobleyfor the Cavaliers. I think the only way Cleveland wins this game is if Lauri Markkanen and Kevin Love catch fire from deep, but the Mavs actually allow the fewest made threes (10.8) in the NBA.
Nikola Jokic over 47.5 points + rebounds + assists at Pacers (-135)
The worry here is that the Nuggets get out to such a big lead that Jokic doesn't need to play in the fourth quarter, but he only needed 26 minutes to post 29/13/8 against the Wizards in an 18-point win on March 16. Indiana's frontcourt is extremely weak, and even the backups are banged up. It should be easy for Jokic to dominate from everywhere on the court, and even if the Pacers resort to double-teams, Jokic is a master at passing out for easy assists. This month, he's averaging 29/13/8.
Wizards moneyline (-155) vs. Magic
Washington is on the second night of a back-to-back, but their game yesterday – a 107-94 loss to the Bulls – was also at home, so there's no travel involved. They managed to play the Bulls well before a poor fourth quarter as well, so I assume they'll easily be able to take care of business against an awful Magic squad. Since the All-Star break, Orlando has losses to Indiana, Detroit, OKC and Sacramento. The Wizards are better than all those teams.
Heat at Celtics over 213.5 (-105)
This is a play on Robert Williams' absence softening Boston's defense. The team is 5 points worse per 100 possessions with him off the court on defense, and much of that is in halfcourt defense, where the Celtics are 6 points worse with him off the floor. Miami only has an average halfcourt offense, but their core is healthy and they're well-coached, so I think they'll be able to exploit Williams' absence.
Suns -4.5 (-110) at Warriors
Golden State is -5.4 points per 100 possessions with Curry off the court – they just aren't a good team. As much clout as Draymond Green and Klay Thompson have, and has frisky as Jordan Pooleand Jonathan Kuminga have been, I just don't trust them to play an extremely competitive game against the Suns, who are the favorite to win the title. Cam Johnson is out, but Phoenix has thrived through much worse.
Phoenix Suns -4.5 at Golden State Warriors – DraftKings Sportsbook, 12:57 PM CT
I feel like I'm alternating between betting on the Suns and betting against the Lakers on a nightly basis, but both have been profitable strategies. At some point, the Warriors should snap out of their post-Curry-injury malaise, but asking them to do it against the best and most consistent team in the NBA is too tough of a task. With Chris Paul back and already playing heavy minutes, I like the Suns to hand the Warriors their latest loss at home.
Denver Nuggets -9.5 at Indiana Pacers – DraftKings Sportsbook
It's a big slate, so why not offer up a bonus bet? It's very important to keep in mind that one team is definitely trying to win games (Denver) and one team is very interested in losing games (Indiana). The Pacers have enough pieces to make this game somewhat interesting, but they have five players listed as questionable, including Malcolm Brogdon, who's likely to keep his rest streak going. Denver hasn't exactly been blowing teams out of late, but the Pacers offer a nice soft spot in an otherwise brutal late-season schedule. Coming off of a rest day Tuesday, I like Jokic and Co. to roll.