11 games await Tuesday evening's main slate, with first pitch at a normal 7:05 p.m. EDT. As I write this, only Tampa Bay has yet to make their pitching plans known, and based on Vegas totals being low across the board, pitching seems to be plentiful and offense optional.
The top three arms on Tuesday's slate are either in difficult matchups or lack name recognition (Joe Ryan), which leaves Brandon Woodruff ($9,700) as a major standout at a bit of a price reduction. He's walking more and striking out less than a year ago, but he has yet to allow a homer. His 5.30 ERA is due to slide towards his 2.66 FIP, and he limited the Reds to two runs and 15 hits while fanning 22 in 17.2 innings last year. And we're not even touching on Cincinnati's futility this season. He'll be heavily rostered.
To be very clear, I don't hate any of the top six or eight pitchers, it's just difficult to endorse any given price or matchup. With so many choices, and seemingly so few offenses to differentiate on, maybe settling on a second-tier arm in a plus spot is the play for 30 FDP. Dakota Hudson ($8,900)fits that mold with upside, going for 40-plus in his last two. The Royals only strike out at a 20.6 percent rate, but that's not Hudson's game (6.4 per nine). Pitching to contact against a team with a .277 wOBA should work well.
Michael Pineda ($6,900) is the clear pay-down choice. He's managed five innings in each of his first two starts, and faces a Pirates lineup that is producing only a .285 wOBA and .098 ISO against righties while striking out 26.4 percent of the time. There's 30-point potential if he's in place for a win.
If targeting guys with likely lower usage, Jameson Taillon ($7,500) managed 27 FDP in an earlier meeting with Toronto, and German Marquez ($6,100) has traditionally been (oddly) better at home than away while being the victim of some bad luck to date.
Top Targets Nats' starter Erick Fedde is allowing a .385 wOBA to lefties (against .287 to righties). Pair that with him being on the mound in Coors Field, and there should be immediate interest in Charlie Blackmon ($3,800) and/or Ryan McMahon ($3,800). McMahon has a team-leading .407 wOBA and 154 wRC+ against righties, adding a .255 ISO, while Blackmon sports a .397 wOBA, 147 wRC+ and .302 ISO. I'm not buying Michael Wacha's early-season success at all, so I'm happy to plug Mike Trout($4,300) in as a building block. He's been cool of late, with only one double-digit FDP in his last five, but still boasts a robust .485 wOBA, .426 ISO and 229 wRC+ against righties. Similarly, I'm not buying what Brad Keller has been throwing. Nolan Arenado ($3,800) has cooled after a torrid start to the season, which has made him pretty affordable Tuesday. He's only got a 20.4 percent hard-hit rate, leaving plenty to be desired there, but a .470 wOBA paired with run plating at bat opportunities suggests double-digit points is possible. Value Bats Reds' starter Tyler Mahle has been unlucky (6.45 ERA, 2.41 FIP), so I don't want to go too crazy with the Brewers' bats. He also hasn't allowed a homer to date, making Willy Adames ($3,500) and his .374 wOBA a safer bet than Rowdy Tellez' ($2,400) power upside. It's easy to pencil in Juan Soto or Josh Bell as anchors in a Coors' Field contest, or we could look towards the bottom of the Nats' lineup for some value that could benefit from getting on base ahead of the aforementioned top options. Victor Robles ($2,900) is 9-for-15 in his last four games, looking terrific thanks to a new approach while scoring and driving in five, and walking and doubling twice. No advanced metrics here, but skimming the $3,000 and below salary tier, Jose Altuve ($3,000)jumps out as discounted in his second game back from injury. Bryan Reynolds ($2,600) appears to be warming, walking five times and scoring four runs in addition to two hits over his last three games while averaging 15.4 FDP in that stretch. Stacks to Consider White Sox vs. Cubs (Drew Smyly): Tim Anderson ($3,600), Luis Robert ($3,200), Andrew Vaughn ($2,800) Smyly is continuing to have issues keeping the ball in the yard, allowing 1.86 HR/9 after allowing 1.92/9 last season. The White Sox lineup isn't firing on all cylinders, but they have tremendous positive splits dating back through last year. Robert has a .509 wOBA, 235 wRC+ and .395 ISO in 86 plate appearances against southpaws. Vaughn goes .403/161//286 and Anderson .386/150/.200 in nearly double the plate appearances. Weather could play a major role here unfortunately, so keep an eye on rain/PPD chances. Tigers vs. Pirates (Bryse Wilson): Javier Baez ($3,200), Austin Meadows ($2,800), Tucker Barnhart ($2,300) Wilson is the target here, not so much the Tigers lineup. His 4.70 ERA is backed up by a 4.86 xFIP, and he's walking almost as many as he's striking out (4.7 BB/9, 5.9 K/9). He's also been hit considerably harder in limited road exposure than at home, and primarily by lefties. Meadows is a nice standalone option, leading the Tigers with a .362 wOBA while striking out only 10.3 percent of the time. Nearly all the rest of Detroit's lineup fans in the 30 percent range, so this could be a feast or famine stack, but Baez and Barnhart are the next two "best" statistically to date against righties.Robbie Grossman ($2,600) is also in play if he's healthy enough to start. Rain could unfortunately be an issue here as well.