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FanDuel Sportsbook MLB Bets for Wednesday, May 11

I'm in on a pair of night games Wednesday night, picking on a pair of pitchers that I think could give up some runs. The opposing arms in each instance are also high quality, which cements a couple of selections involving the favorites while avoiding an inordinately high price.

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook


New York Mets at Washington Nationals 7:05pm ET

Starting Pitchers: Tylor Megill vs. Aaron Sanchez

Megill has no shortage of impressive numbers to open the season, even after allowing multiple earned runs in three of his last four starts. The emerging right-hander boasts a 4-1 record, 2.43 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 27.7 percent strikeout rate. Per Statcast, he's also forged an xBA of .222 and xwOBA of .297, and he's taking on a Nationals team averaging an MLB-low 2.2 runs per home game. What's more, Washington has a 25.1 percent strikeout rate, .194 average, and MLB-worst .237 wOBA and -17.6 wRAA against righties at home, and they were already blanked by Megill over five innings on Opening Day at home.

In contrast, Sanchez has gotten the season off to a nightmarish start, pitching to an abysmal 8.56 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. The veteran righty has also given up a .321 average overall, and the 59.6 percent hard-hit rate he's yielded per Statcast is the highest of his career. Additionally, the significant trouble Sanchez is experiencing against right-handed hitters – he's surrendered a .414 average and .467 wOBA in that split – could certainly spell trouble against the likes of Starling Marte and Pete Alonso.

MLB Best Bet #1 for Mets-Nationals Mets: -0.5 – 1st 5 innings (-130) for 1 RW Buck

MLB Best Bet #2 for Mets-Nationals: Moneyline/Total Runs Parlay: Mets/ Under 7.5 Runs (+280) for 1 RW Buck


Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals 7:45pm ET

Starting Pitchers: Spenser Watkins vs. Miles Mikolas

Watkins has arguably been fortunate to head into this matchup with a solid 3.22 ERA, as he's flirted with trouble by combining an ugly 4.0 K/9 with a 4.0 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9 across his first 22.1 innings. Accordingly, Watkins sports an xERA of 6.06 and a 5.11 xFIP, as well as a .306 xBA and .402 xwOBA. The Cardinals don't exactly have impressive numbers against righties at home, but they have a very modest 19.6 percent strikeout rate in that split that could spell trouble for Watkins given his aforementioned foreboding metrics.

Mikolas' overall numbers carry much more legitimacy. The veteran right-hander's 1.53 ERA is elite, and although his xERA of 2.75 is notably higher, it's still a very impressive figure. He's also doing an excellent job of limiting hard contact, conceding a career-low 4.8 percent barrel rate and 27.9 percent hard-hit rate per Statcast, along with an 0.5 HR/9. Mikolas has yet to give up more than two earned runs in any start and is allowing a .209 average and .265 wOBA at Busch Stadium.

MLB Best Bet #1 for Cardinals-Orioles:Cardinals -1.5 – 1st 5 innings (+110) for 1 RW Buck

MLB Best Bet #2 for Cardinals-Orioles: Cardinals Over 4.5 Total Runs (-124) for 1 RW Buck

MLB Best Bet #3 for Cardinals-Orioles: Miles MikolasUnder 5.5 Hits Allowed (-106) for 1 RW Buck



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