MLB Best Bets for Athletics at Pirates
Pirates -1.5 for 1.2 units (DraftKings -120)
Athletics / Pirates UNDER 8.5 runs for 1.05 units (DraftKings -105)
Mitch Keller OVER 7.5 strikeouts for 1 unit (DraftKings +145
Oakland Athletics at Pittsburgh Pirates
When looking at one game, I typically will pick the biggest mismatch and look to correlate multiple plays on the game.
It has been well-documented how bad the A's have been and there is no reason to stop picking on them, especially in this spot with Mitch Keller on the mound for the Pirates against James Kaprielian.
Looking at Kaprielian's recent starts, the A's have only scored a total of four runs and allowed 16 for an average score of 4-1. Kaprielian has an 8.12 ERA and 1.80 WHIP on the season with a 38/22 K:BB.
While Keller has been lights out this season, going 7-1 with a 3.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 93:17 K:BB ratio, he has gotten roughed up over his last two outings at the Mariners and at the Giants (7.50 ERA, 1.67 WHIP), but still had a 16:3 K:BB.
The A's hitting has been dismal all season, but even more in the last 18 games (2-16), where they have hit .186, .266 OBP, and .250 SLG while averaging just 2.2 runs per game. They have a 0.19 BB/K ratio on the road in that stretch vs. 0.56 at home. Oh, they also have a 15-game losing streak on the road, being outscored 6.3-2.1 (runs per game). The Pirates have averaged just under five runs per game in their recent six-game winning streak.
Mitch Keller has posted at least eight strikeouts in seven straight starts, and the total posted in today's game is 7.5 so there is great value on this number, especially at plus money. An interesting note on the A's lineup, as their best hitter, Brent Rooker, is not expected to start. This has the makings of a 5-1-type game and another rinse/repeat performance against the Athletics.
Comments