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MLB Best Bets for Saturday, July 9

I'm focused on one matchup in each league today, and each starting pitcher is targetable to varying degree in my opinion. Consequently, I'm focusing on some totals being exceeded, both on a team and game level.


Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals

Starting Pitchers: Kyle Gibson vs. Dakota Hudson

Gibson has pitched to an atrocious 14.85 ERA, 2.40 WHIP and 5.4 HR/9 across 6.2 innings in his last two starts, with his most recent turn coming against these same Cardinals. St. Louis lit up the veteran righty for six runs on seven hits over four innings in that matchup, belting four home runs in the process. The Cards now get a crack at him at home, where they own a solid .325 wOBA and .745 OPS against righties in the last month. Gibson has also had much more trouble on the road despite his aforementioned poor home start against the Cardinals, as he owns a 6.34 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 32.2 away innings.

Hudson may lay claim to more aesthetically pleasing surface numbers than Gibson, but his .300 xBA, .366 xwOBA, 5.11 xERA and career-worst 13.0 percent strikeout rate all are foreboding. Hudson has been at his best at home, yet he's in the midst of a stretch where he's yielded a 7.82 ERA, 1.93 WHIP and 5.0 BB/9 across his last five starts, including a six-earned-run outing versus the Reds at Busch Stadium. Philly also ranks third in all of baseball with 2.7 runs per first five innings per road game, and the Over is an MLB-best 24-15 in the Phillies' road games while also sporting a solid 22-17-2 mark in the Cardinals' home contests.

MLB Best Bets for Phillies at Cardinals

The Pick: Over 4.5 runs – 1st 5 innings (-118 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 2.36 RW Bucks

Secondary Pick: Cardinals Over 3.5 total runs (-145) for 2.90 RW Bucks


New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

Starting Pitchers: Jordan Montgomery vs. Kutter Crawford

Montgomery had some trouble with the Red Sox the only time he faced them previously this season, surrendering three earned runs on four hits over 3.1 innings back in his first start of the season. Current Boston bats have a solid .266 average and .732 OPS against him during his career, and the Red Sox have also posted a .274 average, .806 OPS and .350 wOBA against left-handers at home since June 1. Moreover, Montgomery is sporting a .275 xBA, and there's a notable gulf between his .279 wOBA and .326 xwOBA.

Crawford is slated to draw the start Saturday after Michael Wacha moved to the injured list with a shoulder injury. The right-hander has worked mostly in relief, but he's notably turned in a pair of five-inning blankings of the Mariners and Rays in two of his last three trips to the mound. Crawford also shut the Yankees out over two innings the last time he saw them April 10, but he does have a worrisome 6.39 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 2.1 HR/9 in 12.2 home innings. Additionally, the Yankees have already caused Boston's bullpen to work 10.1 innings during the first two games of the series, and Red Sox relievers have worked the second-most innings in baseball (38.0) since July 1.

MLB Best Bets for Yankees at Red Sox

The Pick: Over 9.5 total runs (+100 at PointsBet Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

Secondary Pick: Yankees Over 5.5 Total Runs (+110 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

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MLB Best Bets Today Recap

  • Phillies-Cardinals Over 4.5 runs – 1st 5 innings (-118 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 2.36 RW Bucks

  • Cardinals Over 3.5 total runs (-145) for 2.90 RW Bucks

  • Yankees-Red Sox Over 9.5 total runs (+100 at PointsBet Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

  • Yankees Over 5.5 Total Runs (+110 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck



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