It's nice to see that scoring has finally picked up too, betting the overs is always more fun. There's only a six-game slate to choose from; my advice is don't go crazy tonight unless there's something you like, there's always tomorrow.
Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians
I think the odds here will move in favor of this pick given Gray's coming off a 12K performance. He's done his damage at home this season (20 Ks in 12.2 innings, 24 Ks in 28.1 innings on the road) and the Guardians aren't a great matchup for him. Cleveland is dead last in the lead in terms of strikeouts vs. right-handed pitching with an 18.1 percent rate so this seems like a good wager, an even better one if the odds swing our way before the first pitch.
MLB Best Bets for Rangers-Guardians
Jon Gray UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-118)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds
You can find this at five but I'd rather lay a little extra juice and get this at 4.5. Honestly, that likely won't matter but let's get into why I like this wager. Madison Bumgarner is no longer an elite pitcher (he's almost just an innings-eater at this point) and this is not a good matchup for him. The Reds have a .357 wOBA at home against left-handed pitching this season, only Colorado and Boston have a better stat than that. Brandon Drury, Joey Votto and Albert Almora have all homered off MadBum if you're looking into those props.
MLB Best Bets for Diamondbacks-Reds
The Pick: Cincinnati Reds OVER 4.5 Runs (-125)
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels
This seems like a fishy line given that Wacha hasn't recorded over 3.5 strikeouts in any of his last four starts. However, a closer look shows that the Angels are a great strikeout matchup for him given they've whiffed at a rate of 25 percent, the second-highest in baseball against right-handed pitching. Even though he's had a low strikeout rate to this point, Wacha has a 2.43 ERA (1.02 WHIP) so he should be able to stay at least five innings in this game allowing plenty of opportunities for strikeouts.
MLB Best Bets for Red Sox-Angels
Michael Wacha OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-158)
New York Mets at San Diego Padres
I've always liked Carlos Carrasco given that he's a big strikeout pitcher but he's now on the wrong side of 35 and has horrendous numbers away from Citi Field this season with a 5.06 ERA (albeit in a limited sample). Also, this game is across the country against a team that's gotten to at least four runs in each of their last four games.
MLB Best Bets for Mets-Padres
San Diego Padres OVER 3.5 Runs (-115)
MLB Best Bets Rewind for Tonight
Jon Gray UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-118) vs. the Guardians
Reds OVER 4.5 Runs (-125) vs. the Diamondbacks
Michael Wacha OVER 3.5 Strikeouts vs. the Angels
Padres OVER 3.5 runs vs. the Mets