top of page

MLB Betting Picks Today: Free MLB Picks and Props for May 19

Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros

One of my strategies is going to be how to attack the A's every day as they are the worst team in baseball. The moneylines are just too expensive now, and the run lines are starting to creep up there also. So either going with a team total OVER or OVER on the pitcher's earned runs has been the way to go.

Ken Waldichuk has a 9.15 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in his four road outings, with a whopping 5.9 BB/9, and 3.7 HR/9. He has allowed at least three earned runs in all four starts and is a bottom-five pitcher on the road. The Astros' offense has scored just 2.05 runs per game at home, so there is some risk, but Waldichuk's walks-plus-home-runs-allowed are so high that getting to four runs in the first five innings can happen. The Astros are projected to have seven right-handed batters in the lineup tonight, which is a huge factor.

The team total for the Astros on the game is 5.5 runs, but most of the damage will happen against Waldichuk, and the F5 team total is just 3.5 runs.

MLB Best Bets for Athletics at Astros

  • Astros OVER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +115)

Brewers at Rays

Shane McClanahan has been unhittable at Tropicana with a 1.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 34 strikeouts to eight walks in four starts (23.0 innings). The Brewers have the lowest implied run total at 3.1 on the 15-game slate, and are one of the worst teams on the road against left-handed pitching. They are dead last in ISO (.080), wRC+(54), wOBA (.252) and strikeout rate (32.4%).

MLB Best Bets for Brewers at Rays

  • Shane McClanahan UNDER 1.5 earned runs for 1.15 units (DraftKings -115)

  • McClanahan OVER 7.5 strikeouts for 1.40 units (DraftKings -140)

Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres

The Red Sox struggle against left-handed pitching and are in the bottom 5 in most offensive categories on the road. Blake Snell got off to a rough start in his first 4 outings (6.00 ERA), but has been able to turn it around recently (3.52 ERA last 4 starts)

The Red Sox are a very heavy left-handed hitting lineup and do have some strong right-handed split hitters like Rob Refsnyder, Enrique Hernandez, and Justin Turner. But their overall team stats against lefties, along with James Paxton's very strong outing last time out have me leaning towards the UNDER. The Padres are also without leading right-handed hitter Manny Machado.

The UNDER has gone 7-1 in the Padres last 8 home games and is 12-2 in their last 14 games overall. The total opened at 9 and has moved down to just 8 in most places.

MLB Best Bets for Red Sox at Padres

  • Red Sox/Padres UNDER 8.5 runs for 1.22 units (FanDuel -122)

Mike Trout o0.5 total bases (-149), Caesars

Joe Ryan, one of the better pitchers in the American League, will start tonight’s game for the Minnesota Twins. However, the market is still far too cold on Mike Trout in this spot. Entering play on Friday, Trout has at least one total base in 30 of his 42 games played, including 13 of his 18 home games. Simply, a player of Trout’s caliber, someone who owns a .280 batting average for the season, should not be playable at this price against any pitcher. Factor in that Trout will likely get at least one, if not two, plate appearances against the Minnesota bullpen, and we are in a good position to cash an over here.

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

  • Astros OVER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +115)

  • Shane McClanahan UNDER 1.5 earned runs for 1.15 units (DraftKings -115)

  • McClanahan OVER 7.5 strikeouts for 1.40 units (DraftKings -140)

  • Red Sox/Padres UNDER 8.5 runs for 1.22 units (FanDuel -122)

4 views0 comments


bottom of page