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MLB Picks and Player Props for Monday, August 1

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros

Houston Astros F5 -0.5, -120 vs. Boston Red Sox (BetMGM)

Astros starter Luis Garcia hasn't been very sharp recently, but he's a good pitcher and is generally reliable. He has pitched much worse at Minute Maid Park than he has on the road this year (4.89 ERA at home, 2.72 ERA on the road), but those numbers were flip-flopped last year, so I wouldn't read too much into that. The reason for this play is that I have much greater concerns about Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi, who has been very hittable recently (23 hits allowed over his last three starts, covering just 13 innings). Combine that with the fact that Houston lit up Eovaldi for five home runs (!) in their prior meeting this year, as he allowed eight hits and six earned runs over just 1.2 innings. Very good chance the Astros can open up an early lead today.

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Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases, +100 (BetMGM)

In addition to Eovaldi allowing a ton of hits recently, and Yordan Alvarez simply being a great hitter, note that Alvarez is 4-for-4 vs. Eovaldi with a homer and a double. As always, be sure and verify lineups before placing any hitter props (they get refunded if the hitter doesn't play, but I worry about pinch-hitting appearances when it comes to that rule).

Check out RotoWire's MLB Player Props page for the full list of player props for each day of the MLB season.

Jose Altuve over 1.5 total bases, +130 (DraftKings)

Leadoff hitter Altuve is slugging .857 vs. Eovaldi over 21 career at-bats, with five of his seven hits going for extra bases (three homers and two doubles). Heck yes at +130 from the leadoff spot with one of the better hitters in baseball.

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MLB Best Bets for Red Sox at Astros

  • Houston Astros F5 -0.5, -120

  • Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases, +100

  • Jose Altuve over 1.5 total bases, +130

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Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers/San Francisco Giants F5 under 4.0, -105 (Caesars)

Dodgers starter Andrew Heaney has pitched extremely well this year when he's been out there, and there's little reason to expect a blowup as he covers most or all of the first five innings today. Giants starter Logan Webb pitches great at home (2.43 ERA and 1.17 WHIP) and generally fares pretty well vs. the Dodgers. Good value on the first five innings under, as they'll have to score five runs to beat us at the coin-flip price.

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MLB Best Bets for Dodgers at Giants

  • Dodgers/Giants F5 under 4.0, -105

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New York Mets at Washington Nationals

Max Scherzer to record a Win, -125 (DraftKings)

This game looks like an absolute mismatch on paper, as Mad Max returns to his old stomping grounds to face a sub-par Nationals team. Washington starter Patrick Corbin has been getting roughed up all year, most recently allowing eight baserunners and six earned runs in just two-thirds of an inning vs. the Dodgers. Over his last three starts, he has allowed 28 baserunners and 16 earned runs over just 10.2 innings. Contrast that with the exceptional Scherzer, who is coming off a 7-inning shutout of the Yankees, and hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last seven starts. And of course, the Mets also have a much better offense than the Nationals. I'm opting for the Max Scherzer Win in this spot, but the Mets run line is also a very attractive play at similar pricing. This could end up being the easiest winner of the week.

If you're looking for more ways to bet Max Scherzer, check out RotoWire's NL Cy Young odds page for the latest prices on the senior circuit's awards race.

MLB Best Bets for Mets at Nationals

  • Max Scherzer to record a Win, -125 (DraftKings)

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Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees

New York Yankees -1.5, +110 vs. Seattle Mariners (Fanduel)

Domingo German takes the mound for the Yankees today vs. Seattle, and he looked much-improved in his latest start after a very rough outing in his season debut at Houston (not exactly an easy spot). German was quite sharp in the minors before getting called up, and his insertion into the rotation (ahead of JP Sears, who has pitched extremely well this year) signals the Yankees' confidence in him. It also helps (probably) that today will be his first home start, and it definitely helps that he'll be facing a Mariners lineup that will be missing Julio Rodriguez and Ty France. Seattle will send lefty Marco Gonzales to the mound today, which is significant in that the Yankees are 22-8 vs. LHP (for a .733 win percentage, compared to their .643 win percentage vs. RHP). This is a good spot for the Yankees today.

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MLB Best Bets for Mariners at Yankees

New York Yankees -1.5, +110

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MLB Best Bets Today Recap

  • Max Scherzer to record a Win, -125

  • New York Yankees -1.5, +110

  • Houston Astros F5 -0.5, -120

  • Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases, +100

  • Jose Altuve over 1.5 total bases, +130

  • Dodgers/Giants F5 under 4.0, -105

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