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MLB Picks for Tuesday, August 16

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

When I analyze a MLB card, I look for the biggest mismatch overall; not just the biggest moneyline. In this case, we have Zack Greinke vs. Sonny Gray and an awful Royals team that is bottom five. A good rule of thumb is when you have a -200 moneyline or larger, you can expect the run line to be -1.5 and close to even money. That is why you want to pick your spots when going this route. There are plenty of these scenarios today and I like the favorite in most of them.

In this case, when you have two divisional teams, you get a lot of history and we see that the average runs scored total in the series has been 8.5.

But I also want to look at the scenario which is the Twins at home as -200 or larger. They are 9-1 in 10 games this year and 3-7 over/under with a 3.9-2.0 average score. I'm leaning towards the Twins here.

MLB Best Bets for Royals at Twins

  • Twins -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +110)



Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians

A very similar theme to the Twins/Royals in that we have a big mismatch and a -200 moneyline home favorite. While the pitching matchup Garrett Hill vs. Zach Plesac is not as bad, it is still the woeful Tigers. I am going to pick on these bottom 5-10 teams in MLB the rest of the season, as motivation is just not there.

The Guardians are 8-2 last 10, 13-7 last 20 while the Tigers are just 7-23 in their last 30. The season series is close with the Guardians leading 9-8 which is surprising, but it has been very heavy on the home/road split. The Tigers have won 6 out the 8 at home and lost 5 out of 7 on the road. But the Guardians just swept the Tigers in Detroit last week in a 3 game series.

Really what this comes down to is the Guardians are playing great baseball and face one of the worst pitchers in baseball who has almost as many walks as strikeouts.

MLB Best Bets for Tigers at Guardians

  • Guardians -1.5 runs for 1.02 RW buck (Fanduel -102)



Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants

Sometimes lines jump off the page and this is one of them. I love getting a solid underrated pitcher on a bad team when they are a dog. We have that situation with Merrill Kelly vs. Jakob Junis. Arizona is a slight dog at +108 and are playing about as good of baseball as the Giants (around .500) in the last 30 days.

Kelly is 10-5 with a 2.95 ERA on the season and even better in his last 7 starts with a 1.94 ERA in which he faced the Giants twice and beat them both times. Junis has a 3.78 ERA on the season and 4.25 ERA in his last 7 starts. I think we take the value here with Kelly who I think should actually be favored.

MLB Best Bets for Diamondbacks at Giants

  • Diamondbacks for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +108)


Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals

We cap off the slate with Happy Corbin day in that we get Patrick Corbin on the mound. Yes, it's the gift that keeps on giving as Corbin with his 4-16 record and 7.02 ERA take the bump against...oh heck who cares but it's Justin Steele. Just hit the like button and subscribe to the Cubs on the moneyline and team total over as Corbin gets smashed again.

MLB Best Bets for Cubs at Nationals

  • Cubs -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +100)

  • Cubs OVER 4.5 runs for 1.24 RW buck (Fanduel -124)

  • Cubs OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1.05 RW buck (DraftKings -105)



MLB Best Bets Today Recap

  • Twins -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +110)

  • Guardians -1.5 runs for 1.02 RW buck (Fanduel -102)

  • Diamondbacks for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +108)

  • Cubs -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +100)

  • Cubs OVER 4.5 runs for 1.24 RW buck (Fanduel -124)

  • Cubs OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1.05 RW buck (DraftKings -105)

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