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MLB Picks Tonight: Expert MLB Bets for Tuesday, September 27

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Sometimes you see a line and end up doing one of those head tilts that dogs do with a "huh?" reaction. That was the case when I saw this total open at 7.5. 7.5 in a Jose Berrios start makes no sense and I do not care if he was facing Cy Young himself. The number has moved to 8.0 in some spots already, so get in while you can. It is playable up to 8.5 runs as that is what I have it projected for.

Berrios was pitching slightly better in his last few starts, but got bombed for 6 runs in 2 innings at the Rays last week. In three starts against the Yankees this year, he has had 2 bad starts and 1 good start with a 4.76 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. The Yankees are also trending to the OVER 13-5 in their last 18.

MLB Best Bets for Yankees at Blue Jays

  • Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 7.5 runs for 1.15 RW buck (DraftKings -115)

Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros

Whenever we can get the Astros on the run line at close to even money at home, it is worth considering. The Diamondbacks are 6-14 in their last 20, while the Astros are 15-5. Lance McCullers has been lights out with a 2.38 ERA in his last seven starts, but still walking guys. Zach Davies is just a bad pitcher and person (Google him) in which the Astros feast on these types of pitchers.

MLB Best Bets for Diamondbacks at Astros

  • Astros -1.5 runs for 1.05 RW buck (DraftKings -105)

Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians are surging right now having just clinched the AL Central and a playoff spot. They are 18-3 straight up over their last 21 games. While the Rays are just 6-11 in their last 17 and 14-9 to the UNDER in their last 23. We have a decent pitching matchup with former teammates Corey Kluber against Shane Bieber with a low total of 6.5. This plays into the Guardians' wheel house and I will take them on the moneyline. I rarely if ever will lay -1.5 runs on a game with a total of 6.5 runs.

MLB Best Bets for Rays at Guardians

  • Guardians -145 for 1.45 RW buck (PointsBet)

Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels

I normally avoid games like this between two teams that have no motivation at this point in the season, but when looking at recent trends the A's pitching has been brutal to say the least.

The A's have a 5.50 ERA since August 4th while the Angels are averaging 4.4 runs per game in the last 30 days. The A's have allowed at least 5 runs or more in 14 out of their last 18 games.

MLB Best Bets for Athletics at Angels

  • Angels OVER 4.5 runs for 1.15 RW buck (FanDuel -115)

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

  • Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 7.5 runs for 1.15 RW buck (DraftKings -115)

  • Astros -1.5 runs for 1.05 RW buck (DraftKings -105)

  • Guardians -145 for 1.45 RW buck (PointsBet)

  • Angels OVER 4.5 runs for 1.15 RW buck (FanDuel -115)

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