Reid Detmers u5.5 strikeouts
Nestor Cortes o5.5 strikeouts
Yusei Kikuchi less than 5.0 pitcher strikeouts
Reid Detmers u5.5 strikeouts (-154), FanDuel
To begin the new season, the Toronto Blue Jays rank 10th in strikeout percentage out of 30 teams. Their ability to avoid punchouts is two-fold – 1) they are making contact at a high-rate on swings outside of the strike zone; 2) they are rarely swinging and missing on pitches inside the strike zone. Toronto has not been the most disciplined team in the league, ranking 19th in O-Swing%, but they rank fourth in O-Contact% and sixth in SwStr%, which has made it difficult for opposing pitchers to generate an abundance of strikeouts. Reid Detmers is a quality pitcher, but he has a strikeout-averse umpire calling balls and strikes in this one and a high-contact opponent. The under is the smart lean here.
Nestor Cortes o5.5 strikeouts (-102), Caesars
Entering play on Sunday, the Baltimore Orioles are 25th in strikeout percentage as a team against left-handed pitching in 2023. In their starting lineup this afternoon, Baltimore has five high-probability strikeout targets with Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Jorge Mateo, and Gunnar Henderson. The other four names in the lineup each had a 20.6% strikeout percentage or higher against southpaws last season. Simply, there are nine batters in this Orioles lineup that could strike out this afternoon. Bill Miller, today’s home plate umpire, is neutral, meaning that he will not get in the way here. The over is a great look on Easter.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Yusei Kikuchi less than 5.0 pitcher strikeouts, PrizePicks
On Sunday, Yusei Kikuchi will have to deal with Alex MacKay, a strikeout-averse umpire, calling balls and strikes. Dating back to last season, Kikuchi has recorded less than six strikeouts in 26 of his 33 starts including 17 of his last 18 starts on the road. There is simply no justification for this line, even against a Los Angeles Angels team that swings and misses more often than the league average lineup. Expect Kikuchi to end with fewer than five strikeouts this afternoon.