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NBA Best Bets Today - April 6

Best Bets

Josh Giddey under 2.5 turnovers at Utah (-130)

Utah's defensive intensity, especially at the point of attack, is at an all-time low. The Jazz are forcing the fewest turnovers from point guards over the past month. That's great for Giddey, who has just two TOTAL turnovers in the past four games. It would be shocking if the Jazz are the team that bring his mistakes back to the surface.

Talen Horton-Tucker over 36.5 P+R+A (-120) vs. Thunder It's been the Horton-Tucker show for Utah lately. Over the past four games, he's averaging 31.0 PPG, 6.8 APG and 5.0 RPG. Importantly, the scoring hasn't been through insane efficiency, as he's slashing a fairly modest 47/36/83 on 23.0 field-goal attempts per game. I actually don't mind pairing this with an over on his turnover prop (3.5, -125) since it's a bank on his usage rate, and OKC has forced the most opponent point guard turnovers over the past 30 days.

Ochai Agbaji over 2.5 threes (-105) vs. Thunder I love targeting corner three-point shooters in select spots, and this is one of them. Agbaji, who takes 28% of his total shots from the corner, has made multiple threes in six straight games (2.7 at 39%) and hasn't taken fewer than four in a game since Feb. 11. The Thunder have allowed the second-most corner three attempts over the past month.

San Antonio Spurs -4.0 vs. Portland Trail Blazers This may be the only time all season I'm backing the Spurs to cover, but we need to consider the fact that they're already locked into the bottom three. Winning this game won't change anything for their draft position. Meanwhile, if lottery positioning is the goal, then the Blazers should have absolutely no interest in winning this game.


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