2-Leg Parlay: Grayson Allen over 18.5 points + assists and Cameron Payne over 21.5 points + assists (+236)
bet These picks are based on teammate injuries. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday are out for the Bucks. I think Bobby Portis' props (20.5 points, 14.5 rebounds) are too inflated to bet with confidence, so I'm pivoting to Allen. He has a 31.5 USG% with Giannis and Holiday off the floor, translating to 21.3 shots and 1.9 assists per 36 minutes. I expect fewer shots and more assists, but it would be surprising if the balance didn't end up being 18.5 combined points and assists. For Phoenix, both Chris Paul and Cameron Johnson are out. With that pair off the floor, Payne has a 29.3 USG%, translating to 19.6 shots and 6.6 assists per 36 minutes. I think his points prop (14.5) is more exploitable than his assists (7.5), but the combined number makes it a bit safer.
Zion Williamson Under 7.5 rebounds (-110) at Chicago
Williamson has been dominant on the scoreboard early in the season, topping 20 points in six of his eight appearances. However, he hasn't had the same kind of consistency on the boards. He's topped 7.5 rebounds just three times to begin the season and will be going up against a Bulls defense that's tied for 12th in rebounds allowed against opposing power forwards. Williamson has struggled to display much upside on the boards, and it seems like he could struggle once again in Chicago on Wednesday.
Toronto Raptors -10.0 vs. Houston Rockets
The Raptors are down their best player in Pascal Siakam, and they certainly missed him Monday against the Bulls, but this is a fantastic matchup against a struggling Rockets team. Toronto has plenty of frontcourt depth to survive without Siakam – particularly against an opponent that rolls out Alperen Sengun, Usman Garuba, KJ Martin and a struggling Jabari Smith up front.
Jevon Carter OVER 7.5 points at OKC
We're digging deep here, but the Bucks will almost certainly be without Jrue Holidaytonight, so Carter should be looking at a potential 30-plus-minute role. Obviously, Carter is not a score-first player – he's gone over this number only twice all season – but with no Holiday I like his chances to get there, especially at plus money (+100).