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NBA Best Bets Today Jan. 3

Domantas Sabonis over 34.5 points + rebounds (-110) at Utah

The Jazz allow the fourth-most offensive rebounds in the NBA, and their paint protection numbers are also poor. Sabonis lives on the offensive boards, and I expect him to clean up and get some nice looks around the hoop. Despite playing with a broken thumb, he's averaged 25.7 points and 11.7 boards in the past three games against Denver (31 and 10), Utah (28 and 11) and Memphis (18 and 14).


Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O39.5 points + rebounds + assists

This is a high number, of course, but Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging nearly 31 points per game on the season with about 11 combined assists/rebounds per contest. He's coming off of a down game against Philly on Saturday (14 points in 32 minutes), but historically he's bounced back in these situations. On the five previous occasions this season in which he's scored fewer than 25 points, Gilgeous-Alexander has responded with 38, 33, 37, 30 and 42 points in his next game. Unsurprisingly, he's cruised to O39.5 PTS/REB/AST in all five of those contests.

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