Fred VanVleet over 29.5 points + rebounds + assists at Washington (-120)
VanVleet is coming off an awful shooting night (1-for-11) against a Bulls team that's actually been the second-best defense since the New Year. I like him to have a bounceback effort Thursday against a Wizards defense that ranks 27th over that same time period. Oddly, VanVleet has also been a marginally better shooter on the road, and he plays a bit better in wins, with the Raptors favored by two points. Since Jan. 1, FVV is averaging 20.5 points, 7.4 assists and 5.0 boards.
James Harden O22.5 points at Dallas Mavericks The Sixers may again be without Joel Embiid to finish out a back-to-back set, so Harden could take center stage as both the Sixers' top scorer and playmaker. He did finish with "only" 23 points Wednesday night in Miami, but Dallas should be a much more advantageous matchup. Since adding Kyrie Irving, the Mavs are one of the NBA's worst defenses (118.1 DRTG). I'd also look into Harden O2.5 made threes – a number he's gone over in 10 of the last 15 games. Kyle Kuzma under 21.5 points vs. Raptors (-118) The Unicorn, Kristaps Porzingis, returns for the Wizards tonight after a two-game absence. And Bradley Beal finally looks healthy again as he's played in eight straight games and averaged 25.9 points per game over that span. Washington faces Toronto tonight, who rank 7th in the Association in points allowed per game (111.9). Kuzma put up 28 points Tuesday versus Atlanta, but Porzingis was out and Atlanta's defense is questionable. I just don't think Kuzma will get enough quality shots tonight to post 22 points. The Raptors are healthy, long and play quality defense. The Raptors are also favored, despite playing on the road and we're looking at a low O/U of 222.0. Plus Beal and Porzingis will be Washington's top options.
Jordan Poole o4.5 assists (-130), DraftKings
Since Stephen Curry last played on February 4, Jordan Poole is averaging 6.3 assists and 10.4 potential assists in nine games played. In six home contests, Poole is averaging 6.7 assists and 11.5 potential assists, and has zero games with fewer than four assists in that span. Per CourtIQ, he is averaging 5.1 assists per 36 minutes of action this season when both Curry and Andrew Wiggins are off of the floor. Tonight, Poole gets a favorable matchup against a Los Angeles Clippers defense that ranks 26th in opponent assists per game since the beginning of February – take the over here and live with the result.
Anthony Lamb o1.5 assists (-120), BetMGM
There are slim pickings on the NBA player prop market this evening, which has us turning to an unfamiliar face for one of our recommendations – Anthony Lamb. Since February 14, Lamb has played no fewer than 20 minutes in any individual contest. In that span, he is averaging 3.6 potential assists per game, and has at least four potential assists three of those five trips to the hardwood. According to props.cash, Lamb has eclipsed this market number in 17 of 22 games played this year when he sees at least 20 minutes of playing time. In a favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers, take the over.
Jordan Poole o2.5 three-pointers made (-150), DraftKings
Since Stephen Curry last played on February 4, Jordan Poole is averaging 3.2 made three-pointers on 9.0 attempts per game from beyond-the-arc. In that span, he has attempted at least eight shots from deep in seven of his nine games played, including five games with double-digits attempts from distance. On Thursday evening, Poole gets a favorable matchup against a Los Angeles Clippers defense that ranks 22nd in opponent three-point attempts per game and 27th in opponent three-point percentage since February 1. The volume will be there for Poole tonight – trust him to knock down enough shots to hit the over here.