Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points (-125) and over 1.5 steals (-145) at Warriors
Golden State is giving up the second-most mid-range attempts over the past month -- where Gilgeous-Alexander takes half his shots. SGA also hasn't scored fewer than 27 points since March 13 and is averaging 33.9 PPG during this stretch. On the other side of the ball, the Warriors have the highest TOV% over the past month, and SGA has at least one steals in 12 of the past 13 games, averaging 1.5 STL during this stretch. Using the same logic, it's easy for me to endorse Steph Curry over 3.5 turnovers (+120) as well.
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Mikal Bridges over 26.5 points (-125) vs. Timberwolves With Rudy Gobert anchoring the paint, Minnesota is one of the league's most committed drop coverage defenses. That strategy allows for open mid-range jumpers and open threes from floor-spacing fives. Brooklyn doesn't deploy a floor-spacing center, so I'm looking to Bridges for a big game. He takes 48% of his shots from mid-range, and he's averaging 33.7 PPG on 21.0 shots across the past six games.
Fred VanVleet over 1.5 steals (-160) at Charlotte There's a lot of juice here, but for good reason. The Hornets have the third-highest TOV% over the past month, and VanVleet has at least one swipe in his past 17 appearances (2.4 STL). This is a rematch as well, with FVV recording three steals against Charlotte on Sunday -- not to mention 20 points and 20 assists!
Isaiah Livers over 1.5 threes (-140) vs. Heat We're diving a little deep here, but the Heat have been prone to corner three-point shooters all season and are still allowing the most attempts from that spot over the past month. That's where Livers takes 24% of his shots. His conversion rate from three...has some variance. Over the past month, he's making 1.6 triples on 32.1 percent. Still, the volume is encouraging, and he should be open all night.
Saddiq Bey over 2.5 threes (+110) at Chicago Bey will get the start again with De'Andre Hunter sidelined, and with Trae Youngout as well, Bey will probably be asked to take more shots. Not only that, but the Bulls have allowed the third-most corner three attempts over the past month -- where Bey has taken 27% of his shots as a Hawk. When seeing 30+ minutes this season, he's making 2.4 threes at 36.5 percent.
LeBron James double-double at Utah Jazz (+135) There's some blowout potential here with Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessleramong the inactives for Utah, but the Lakers have a tendency to let bad teams hang around, so as long as James approaches 30 minutes, I like his chance to rack up a third straight double-double. Utah ranks No. 1 in the NBA in three-pointers allowed to opponents over its last 10 games, and James might be the best in the league when it comes to setting up teammates from downtown. On top of that, the Jazz allow the second-most assists per game to opposing teams – a positive indication for James, who made a point to set up Anthony Davis time and time again Sunday against Houston. Of course, rebounds are also in play for James, who has at least eight in six straight games dating back to before his injury. The Lakers could also be without D'Angelo Russelltonight. He moved from probable to questionable on the injury report, and it would make sense to exercise caution ahead of Wednesday's showdown with the Clippers.
Evan Mobley over 1.5 blocks at Orlando (-130) Over his last seven games, Mobley has averaged 3.1 blocks per contest. He's had three or more blocks in six of those seven games. Orlando ranks tied for 22nd in blocks allowed per game (5.06). That ain't good. Mobley will feast on awkward attempts by Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. I'm betting Mobley stays hot with the swats, baby.
Pat Connaughton over 8.5 points (-110) at Washington The Wizards are essentially starting a G League squad tonight, with apologies to Delon Wright. The Bucks are favored by -13.5, so it seems like a perfect time to give Giannis and Jrue Holiday minimal minutes. But who cares how tired Pat Connaughton gets? In fact, Milwaukee should be motivated to get Connaughton back on track after a rough March. He's back in the starting line-up as the Bucks load manage Khris Middleton and Grayson Allen deals with an ankle issue. Jevon Carter is also questionable. It seems like plenty of shots should be available for Connaughton.
Eugene Omoruyi over 12.5 points vs. Heat (-108) Marvin Bagley is out. In fact, half of the Pistons are out: Bogdanovic, McGruder, Burks, Diallo and Beef Stew. If it wasn't for Jaden Ivey and Killian Hayes, Eugene might have to bring the ball up. Omoruyi, after going undrafted in 2021, will play in his 43rd NBA contest tonight. He knows it's now or never. On April 2nd, versus Orlando, he hoisted 17 shots on his way to 19 points. As a reserve, he's averaged 14.7 points over his last three games. Tonight he's getting the start and I expect he'll shoot early and often. Omoruyi might play 30+ minutes tonight. And I'm excited to yell "EUGENE!!!" all night. Hey, I'm a modest 26-22 on the season, so feel free to fade all my suggestions.
Johnny Davis 20+ points vs. Bucks (+410) Deni Avdija (elbow) will join Bradley Beal (knee), Kristaps Porzingis (illness), Monte Morris (ankle) and Kyle Kuzma (ankle) on the sidelines Tuesday, so Davis is expected to draw a second straight start and should have ample offensive opportunities against the Bucks. The rookie first-round pick has yet to score 20-plus points at the NBA level, but he has scored at least 15 in two of his past four appearances, including 16 during his first career start versus the Knicks on Sunday. FanDuel thinks Davis scoring 15-plus is essentially a coin flip (+115), so I like the value play and will bank on the Wisconsin native exceeding expectations in his first NBA game at Fiserv Forum.
Giannis Antetokounmpo first basket vs. Washington (+320) First baskets are always a fun prop to bet, and I like Giannis setting the tone early against Washington's porous and depleted frontcourt.
Timberwolves at Nets OVER 224 (-110) e best individual defenders in the game, but I think they both want to push the pace and can get easy looks in transition before the likes of Rudy Gobert and Nic Claxton get their respective half-court defenses in position.