While I've changed my mind and think the Celtics will win the series, the Warriors' third-quarter dominance (136-87) is still unmatched, and I trust them to keep up the trend at home. I'm a bit surprised the number is -160 given the trend, so I think it's good value.
Boston Celtics +3.5 at Golden State Warriors (-110)
I keep going back and forth on this game, but recent history suggests the Celtics will find a way to bounce back after dropping Game 4 at home. All of the momentum feels like it's shifted in favor of Golden State, but throughout the playoffs, Boston has always been able to summon a more-complete performance whenever it's been needed. Doing so on the road with Stephen Curry riding a hot streak won't be an easy task, but the Celtics haven't made anything easy on themsleves in these playoffs.
Prop bets to consider:
Stephen Curry 3+ threes in first half (+105)
Jaylen Brown 2+ threes in first half (+190)
Jayson Tatum O27.5 points (-105)
Celtics to win (+145)
I just think Jayson Tatum is due. He said all the right things after Game 4, a game they foolishly let slip away as the offense stagnated for the last 7-plus minutes. I can't imagine they let that happen again. Boston has the heavy advantage inside and I'm confident they'll slow down Curry. If you're really feeling bold, take the over on Derrick White scoring 12.5 – he's played better on the road this series.
Game total under 212.5 points (-135)
As this series has gone on, we've seen some tighter games, though many still feel like blowouts. When the games have been close, the Celtics' offense seems to disappear. While this is largely a feel pick, there's still some numbers that point towards the under as well. Between the Celtics and Warriors, eight of the last nine games played in Golden State have gone under, including 13 of the last 17 games between the two going under. I'm willing to lay the juice and take this under, especially with the current total falling to 210.5.
Warriors 3Q -1.5 (-110)
Do I even have to explain this one? The Warriors in the third quarter are unbelievable, leading 4-0 in the third quarter this series. In the four games, the Warriors have outscored the Celtics by 49 points (136-87). Until the Celtics can slow down the Warriors' halftime adjustments, I see no reason not to keep riding the Warriors in the third quarter.