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NBA Bets: Alex's picks for March 8th

I had time to put in some extra research today, so I've got more bets than usual that I like. I'll keep the write-ups relatively brief but provide the main information that made me lean in a certain direction. To avoid things getting too clunky, I'm not specifying which sportsbook the odds are from, but you should be able to find them on nearly any site you typically use.


  • Dejounte Murray over 1.5 steals (+155) at Washington

    • Wizards have the second-highest TOV% over the past month

    • Murray just 0.9 STL over the past month but his upside is appealing at plus money and has five steals in the past three games


  • Jayson Tatum over 9.5 rebounds vs. Trail Blazers (-135)

    • Blazers are 19th in ORB% and 29th in DRB% over the past month

    • Tatum averaging 11.2 RPG since the All-Star Break, Rob Williams still out


  • Russell Westbrook over 3.5 turnovers vs. Raptors (-115)

    • Toronto has the second-highest opponent TOV% in the past month

    • Westbrook averaging 4.3 TOV since joining Clippers


  • Clint Capela under 11.5 points at Washington (-115)

    • Washington allowing the third-fewest shots at the rim over the past month

    • Capela averaging 11.3 PPG since the All-Star break and his minutes continue to fluctuate


  • Tyler Herro under 2.5 threes vs. Cavaliers (-104)

    • Over the past month, Cleveland allows the second-fewest non-corner three-point attempts

    • 38% of Herro's shots are non-corner threes


  • Isaac Okoro over 0.5 threes at Miami (-150)

    • Miami allowing the fourth-most corner three-point attempts over the past month

    • 38% of Okoro's shots are from the corner, averaging 2.8 three-point attempts over the past five games


  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope over 1.5 threes vs. Bulls (+100)

    • Chicago allowing the most corner three-point attempts over the past month

    • KCP takes 21% of his shots from the corner, in the 95th percentile for combo guards.


  • DeMar DeRozan over 22.5 points at Denver (-115)

    • Denver allowing the fourth-most mid-range attempts over the past month

    • DeRozan lives in the mid-range (71% of his attempts) and is averaging 23.4 PPG over the past five games


  • Cavs ML

Devin Booker o26.5 points (-120), PointsBet

In 19 home games this year, Devin Booker is averaging 28.3 points per game. In three games since Kevin Durant joined the starting lineup for the Phoenix Suns, Booker has attempted 26 field goals, 24 field goals, and 25 field goals, respectively, and has played at least 33 minutes in each contest. Tonight, Booker gets a favorable matchup against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that ranks 17th in defensive efficiency, 18th in opponent field goal percentage, 13th in opponent three-point percentage, and 26th in opponent free-throw attempts per game since the All-Star break. Expect Booker to have heavy volume once again on Wednesday, giving him another great opportunity to hit the over on his points prop.


Kevin Durant o25.5 points (-122), FanDuel

On Wednesday night, Kevin Durant will be playing his first home game as a member of the Phoenix Suns. After being limited in his first two games with Phoenix, Durant played 40 minutes this past Sunday against the Dallas Mavericks, scoring 37 points on an efficient 12-for-17 from the floor. Since the beginning of February, the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 18th in defensive efficiency, 23rd in opponent field goal percentage, 20th in opponent three-point percentage, and 29th in opponent free-throw attempts per game. Expect Durant to continue his run of elite efficiency, giving him an opportunity to hit the over here, even if he does not have remarkable volume.


Jayson Tatum o2.5 three-pointers made (-145), DraftKings

According to props.cash, Jayson Tatum has eclipsed this market number in 38 of 61 contests overall this season (62% hit-rate), including 20 of his last 30 games (67% hit-rate). At home, Tatum is 20 for 32 to the over at this number (63% hit-rate), including 7-for-10 (70% hit-rate) since January 28. Tonight, he gets a matchup against a Portland Trail Blazers defense that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency and 23rd in opponent three-point percentage since the beginning of February. Assuming Tatum sees his usual nine attempts from beyond-the-arc this evening, it would be shocking to see him fail to cash this play for bettors.

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