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NBA Expert Picks Today: Best Bets For Tuesday, May 10

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks ( +8) -176

DraftKings Sportsbook: 2:30 PM CT

Nick Whalen: I can't make up my mind on the early game tonight, but I really like Phoenix to have a major bounceback game at home. Virtually everything that could've gone wrong went wrong in Game 4, including Chris Paul being a complete non-factor due to foul trouble. Paul won't be officiated that closely again, the Suns won't commit 17 turnovers, and Dallas won't hit 20 three-pointers. While the Mavs should get a better effort from Luka Doncic, I expect to see a refocused Suns team looking to reassert itself as the undisputed best and most consistent team in the NBA.

Chris Paul to score at least 20 points (+180) vs. Dallas

FanDuel Sportsbook: 12:30 PM CT

Kirien Sprecher: Paul struggled mightily during the two games in Dallas, but the Suns will need him to be the Point God on Tuesday if they hope to head back to Dallas with a chance to advance to the Western Conference Finals. Paul's scoring total is set at 16.5 (-118) but by rolling the dice on 20+ we get this bet to plus-money. Paul has attempted double-digit shots seven times during the postseason and has averaged 25.3 points during those contests.

Philadelphia 76ers to win (+130 ML) at Miami Heat

DraftKings Sportsbook: 2:30 PM CT

Alex Barutha: Miami hasn't looked great over the past two games, and I'm not convinced they get this game at home without Kyle Lowry. Would Miami be favored in this situation if this was a regular-season game? I'm not so sure. It will take a huge games from all three of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro to keep this thing close, unless Max Strus catches fire from deep or Duncan Robinson is raised from the dead to have the game of his life.

Spencer Dinwiddie U 12 points (-170)

DraftKings Sportsbook: 12:45 PM CT

Ken Crites: A few years ago, I got to hear Warriors GM Bob Myers speak at the MIT Sloane Sports Analytics Conference. Everyone was obviously discussing analytics, but Myers kept repeating "the playoffs are different" and "not everyone can replicate their regular season performance in the playoffs" (I'm paraphrasing). I worry Dinwiddie is one of those guys. The 29-year-old has only played in 16 career playoff games. He's shot an ugly 38.1% from the field in those 16 playoff contests. Rotations shrink come playoff time and Dinwiddie's minutes, as a reserve, are down. Maybe for good reason.

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