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NBA Picks for Wednesday, May 11

Tyus Jones over 13.5 points (-130) vs. Warriors

DraftKings, 12:10 PM CT

Jones is thought of more as a passer/floor general than scorer, but he wasn't shy during Monday's Game 4 loss without Ja Morant. The backup point guard played 41 minutes and scored 19 points on 18 shots. That seems fluky at first, though it tracks with what Jones has produced without Morant in the past. In the six games this season Jones has started and seen 35+ minutes, he's averaged 16.8 points on 15.0 shots, and in the 124 minutes he's played with Morant off the court this postseason, he's averaged 17.1 points on 15.7 shots per 36. Golden State's defense is better than average, but Jones will also likely trend closer to 40-45 minutes again rather than 30-35 minutes. Plus, with Desmond Bane less than 100 percent, Memphis' offensive options are quite thin.

Warriors -4.0 at Grizzlies (-110)

DraftKings, 1:45 PM CT

Golden State isn't exactly coming off of the most encouraging performance in Game 4, and the series shifting back to Memphis is big, but the Ja Morant injury feels like it's taken the wind out of the Grizzlies' sails. The Warriors aren't going to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 4 – especially in the first half – and with that being the case, Memphis simply doesn't have the horses, sans Morant, to keep up. Dillon Brooks is not that guy, pal, and Jaren Jackson isn't a No. 2 scorer. With Desmond Bane still clearly battling lower-back issues, I like Golden State to close the series out with an emphatic victory.

Grant Williams over 4.5 rebounds (+100)

DraftKings, 1:35 PM ET

Robert Williams is questionable for Game 5 due to lingering knee issues. I think there is a good chance he doesn't play, which means Boston will need Grant's help inside. Big Al Horfordplayed a season-high 42 minutes on Monday. Banking on a repeat performance from the 35-year-old veteran seems crazy. But I do suspect Milwaukee will occasionally make Lopez challenge Horford's outside shots, which could open the key for Williams and other Celtics. Or we see more small-ball from Milwaukee, which will also help Williams.

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