NFL Week 15 Bets
Detroit Lions at New York Jets -1
The Detroit Lions have been very good over the last two weeks and I think Dan Campbell is a good coach. However, they played against two bad teams defensively and get a different story this week heading to New York to play the jets. The Jets offense has come to life with Mike White and Zonovan Knight has been a revelation at running back, pushing Michael Carter into a backup role. Garrett Wilson has proven himself to be a top 20 wide receiver and that might not be giving him enough credit. If the elements play a factor, I'd have to think that helps the Jets since the Lions are used to playing inside of a dome.
I had a feeling the Jets were going to try and give Wilson another shot this season although I thought it would be in a few weeks when they were out of contention for a playoff spot. I think it's interesting this line didn't move at all on the news as if the sportsbook already knew White wasn't going to be playing. I'm going to stick with the Jets here despite the quarterback switch although I'm not quite as enamored with it as I was thinking that White was playing.
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 at Denver Broncos
Week 15 brings us Colt McCoy versus Brett Rypien a matchup we can we should all be excited about. Seriously though, I trust McCoy much more than Rypien and think he has better offensive weapons around him including wide receivers and running backs. The Broncos still have an elite defense but if they couldn't move the ball with Russell Wilson, how are they going to with Rypien under center? Oddly, the Cardinals despite a 4-9 record are 3-2 on the road and it's tough to see Denver being motivated now that they've been eliminated from the playoffs.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers -7
I like the Packers coming off there bye week and they get another weapon back in Romeo Doubs, who return from after being injury for the previous few weeks. The running back edge easily favors the Packers even with Aaron Jones less than 100% and AJ Dillon has been a force to deal with over the last few weeks. I'm not buying into Baker Mayfield resurrecting the Rams and think that the last game was a complete fluke. I'd guess that Baker struggles on the road and probably still doesn't have a firm grasp of the offense. This game has blowout potential especially if Aaron Rodgers is close to 100% .
Evan Engram UNDER 37.5 Receiving Yards
Good old recency bias should have the public pounding the over for this prop given that Engram had 162 receiving yards last week. However, a closed look at the numbers shows that he didn't hit this over in his previous four games leading up to last week and it's a very different matchup this week for the tight end. The Titans rank towards the bottom of the league against the position (28th) while Dallas comes into the game as one of the best teams (3rd). Don't be surprised if this line moves up close to game time.
Derek Carr OVER 238.5 Passing Yards
Carr had an extremely poor showing last week in Los Angeles throwing for a season-low 137 passing yards but is in a great spot to rebound this week. Outside of a tough game against the Broncos he's hit this over in every other home game this season (four times) and it's a decent matchup against the Patriots. New England is only league-average (16th) against opposing quarterbacks, is playing on something of a short week, and is playing their second game in a row a long way from home. Carr also gets back the services of Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow which can only help.
Anytime Touchdown Props
Keenan Allen +170
This might be my favorite prop of the week as Allen is probably Justin Herbert's favorite wide receiver. Mike Williams posted a big game last week and lost in that shuffle was that a whopping 14 targets including four in the red zone. The matchup doesn't get any better than this with the Chargers being home and facing a Titans defense that ranks dead last in the league against opposing wide receivers.
Allen Lazard +260
I do think the Packers win this one comfortable and despite the emergence of Christian Watson, Lazard has been together longer with Aaron Rodgers and has gotten 12 red zone targets (five inside of the 10). Watson should attract a lot of attention given his seven touchdowns over his last four games and that should have Lazard working against softer coverage. There's also the possibility of a long touchdown with Lazard and Parlaying his anytime touchdown odds with over a high alternate receiving yards prop seems like a good wager.