NFL Week 16 Bets
Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 at Indianapolis Colts
It will be interesting to see which Colts team shows up this week after the embarrassing loss last week to the Minnesota Vikings. This is a team that's now coached by the inexperienced Jeff Saturday, endured the worst comeback in football history last week and made a midweek switch to Nick Foles from Matt Ryan. The Chargers have all three wide receivers - Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Joshua Palmer - completely healthy and they should have no problem putting points on the board. My concern with the Colts is that I don't think they'll be able to keep pace with the Chargers offensively despite Los Angeles having a bad defense. There's also a good chance the Colts have mailed it in for the rest of the season after last week's devastating loss.
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears +8.5
While I hate betting against my Bills, it seems like 8.5 points is too much to be giving up on the road. The weather should play a factor here keeping scoring to a premium and the Bears have a good ground game that'll be helped by the return of Khalil Herbert. I'd easily take the Bills at this line if this weather wasn't going to be a factor in this game but here we are. If I have any concern about taking the points with Chicago it's that Justin Fields doesn't play the whole game.
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots +3
Both these teams seem heading in different directions with the Bengals are looking for another AFC championship while the Patriots barely have any life in the playoff hunt. I actually like the fact that the Patriots lost in spectacular fashion on the road while the Bengals easily beat the Buccaneers with a strong second half last week. New England should benefit from playing at home after being on the road in Las Vegas and Arizona the last two games, two stadiums a great distance from Gillette Stadium. I have a hard time passing on Bill Belichick getting points at home and think there's a good chance the Patriots win this game outright (+148).
Player Prop Bets for Week 16
Tyler Allgeier UNDER 57.5 Rushing Yards
This is my favorite prop that of the week and I love to fade players coming off a big game. Allgeier fits that mold this week having finished with 139 rushing yard and a touchdown last week against the New Orleans Saints. This week the Ravens should be a tougher matchup, especially with mid-season acquisition Roquan Smith who has bolstered the run defense. Cordarrelle Patterson is still going to split touches with Allgeier another factor making it highly unlikely the over hits here. Including last week, Allgeier has only gone over this mark in three of his 14 games this season.
DK Metcalf OVER 74.5 Receiving Yards
This is the first game of the season that Metcalf won't have to share targets with Tyler LockettMetcalf has been seeing a lot of targets with Lockett as of late averaging over 10 over his last five games he faces a horrible pass defense in the Kansas City Chiefs rank, 29th against the position and the last time Metcalf faced a defense this bad it was Detroit in week four in that game Metcalf turned 10 targets into seven receptions for 149 yards. I'd be surprised if he got anything less than 10 targets in this game and he should have no trouble even with a Highline of 74 1/2 yards receiving.
Aaron Rodgers OVER 247.5 Passing Yards
It would probably surprise most people to find out that Aaron Rodgers has yet to throw for 300 yards in a game the season. Losing Davante Adams didn't help and there have been multiple injuries to his current wide receivers as well. However, all of his receivers are close to 100 percent and there's a good chance Romeo Doubs is 80-90 percent of what Christian Watson is. Allen Lazard is something of a safety valve for Rodgers and I would expect some long passing plays in the game that's expected to be a shootout. Look for Rogers to approach 300 passing yards in this game and I don't mind taking him at plus odds for the higher alternative passing yardage (+300 is +310).
Anytime Touchdown Props
Derrick Henry -155
The Texans defense has been excellent against the pass and terrible against the run this season. Houston ranks dead last against the position and Henry torched them for a season-high 219 yards and two scores earlier this season. Looking back, Henry has eclipsed the 200-yard rushing mark in his past four games against the Texans and has scored at least two touchdowns in each contest. Henry scoring two or more touchdowns is available at +330 in case you were wondering.
Mark Andrews +240
Andrews didn't deliver a few weeks ago but as a result of some down games he has some attractive odds this week. The Falcons have been terrible against the tight end position ranking 28th and Andrews has gotten 7, 6, and 7 targets from Huntley over their last three games.
Romeo Doubs +320
Doubs hit the ground running in his return from injury Monday night finishing with a 5-5-55 line with one of those targets/catches being in the red zone. For comparison, Christian Watson has +115 odds and while he's more a proven commodity, I'd rather take the big increase and go with Doubs instead. I also like doing a same-game parlay with Doubs anytime touchdown odds with any "positive" Aaron Rodgers prop bets.