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NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 6

NFL Week 6 Bets

Minnesota Vikings -3 at Miami Dolphins

I stated in Staff Picks I would move to Norway if the Vikings don't win and cover this week. The Dolphins aren't clicking offensively without Tua and there's a ton of upside with the Minnesota offense. All we need here is for the Vikings' defense to make a few stops and this should hit.

Kansas City Chiefs +3 vs. Buffalo Bills

This game has been marked on my calendar for a while and it absolutely kills me to make this pick. I am picking with my brain over my heart (and hope I'm wrong here) but the Chiefs getting points at home is too good to pass up. The Bills are still a bit banged up on defense and this should be a shootout. After a couple of horrible game on Thursday nights, this is a game we deserve.

Pittsburgh Steelers +8.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Remember years ago when it took a while for Vegas to catch up to the Patriots and start making some ridiculous spreads, like Baltimore +18.5 at home against New England on a Monday night? I'm starting to thing the opposite is in effect here and maybe we should start fading Tampa as they really haven't looked good thus far. I like the upside of the Steelers offense and playing in Pittsburgh while getting over a touchdown is enough for me to take the bait.

NFL Player Props for Week 6

Aaron Jones OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards

The Jets are below league-average in stopping the run and Jones has had at least 12 carries in each of his last four games. Having a home game and being over a touchdown favorite suggest a favorable game script for the Packers and Jones should get plenty of touches. I don't mind doing a same game parlay with the over for yardage here with an anytime touchdown.

Kenneth Walker OVER 12.5 Receiving Yards

As Vice President of the Rashaad Penny fan club it totally broke my heart to see him get hurt and be done for the season Sunday. The NFL is a "next man up" league and now it'll be Walker's turn to take over the Seattle backfield. With an game total of 50.5 this game with the Cardinals should go up and down the field and Walker is an excellent pass-catching running back. Odd as it sounds, I actually like that he's had -5 receiving yards over his last two games which I think has helped depress this over/under total.

Drake London OVER 53.5 Receiving Yards

London has gone under this number in each of his last two games but the fact that he's gotten seven or more targets in four of his five games suggests better days ahead (he had six in the other one). San Francisco has a solid defense but they only rank eighth against opposing wide receiver for fantasy purposes. The 49ers should be a bit road-weary after playing in Carolina last week and now in Atlanta this week.

NFL Anytime Touchdown Props

Rhamondre Stevenson is -140 for this same prop and I can't figure out why. Maybe Damien Harriswill be out and the backfield will be all Stevenson's (Harris is -140 as well) but Chubb has seven touchdowns on the season and the Browns are favored which makes this puzzling. I'm not going to spend much time analyzing this and just count on Chubb to find the end zone as usual.

Dobbins is the clear leader in the backfield for the Ravens and that he gets to play with a mobile quarterback like Lamar Jackson opens up more holes for him. The Giants are 12th in the league against opposing running backs and with Baltimore being six-point favorites, this sets up good for Dobbins. Look for him to see an uptick in the eight carries he had last Sunday night.

I always like taking a long shot and Shultz will be my pick this week. I got burned by taking his over for receiving yardage last week so I'm counting on him making things right this week in Philadelphia. He doesn't carry an injury designation this week and practiced fully so he may be flying a bit under the radar this week. The Eagles have been 11th in the league against opposing tight ends so this isn't a terrible matchup for Schultz.

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