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NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 8

New England Patriots -2.5 at New York Jets

This line smells completely wrong for a 3-4 team going to play a 5-2 team at their home field. The Patriots are coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Bears while the Jets have won four in a row, the last three by at least a touchdown. I think the New England defense has figured out Zach Wilson isn't an NFL-caliber quarterback and will stack the box challenging him to throw the ball down the field. I think the Patriots easily win this one and I'd look into some alternate lines for them at plus odds.

Seattle Seahawks -3 vs. New York Giants

The Giants have to travel across the country and play the late game and Seattle is still one of the tougher environments to play in. While I don't think the Seahawks' defense is any good, I think they're good enough at home to force Daniel Jones into at least one turnover and likely multiple ones. I'd feel better if we knew for certain both Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf would suit up for this one but I'd guess at least one of them does.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings OVER 48.5 Points

Silly as it sounds, I might hesitate more here if the spread was up to 49 points. I think both defenses here are suspect (Minnesota being worse) and the offenses should be able to move the ball up and down the field. Both teams have top-5 receivers in Justin Jefferson and DeAndre Hopkins so I'd expect a few big plays here and I might sprinkle a little on each team scoring 2+ touchdowns in each half (+1950).

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NFL Player Props for Week 8

Elijah Moore OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards

It's been a rollercoaster ride of a season for Moore but after the last few weeks, I'll be shocked if he's not heavily involved with the game plan this week. Zach Wilson has publicly stated he has Moore's back and there's even talk about using Moore more in the slot with Garrett Wilson playing outside. Throw in that Corey Davis (knee) will be missing from this game and it points to Moore getting five-plus targets.

Mike Gesicki OVER 26.5 Receiving Yards

This seems like a sucker bet but I'm going to take the bait. Gesicki has gone over this mark in his last two games (getting seven targets in each) and has hit this over in two of three non-concussion games for Tua Tagovailoa. The Lions are 28th in the league against opposing tight ends making this a great matchup for Gesicki. Let's just hope he doesn't score and make an attempt at doing "The Griddy" again.

Terrace Marshall OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards

Marshall has hit the over here in two of his last three games and has a lot working in his favor. Buried on the depth chart most of the season, he's likely worked with backup PJ Walker during practice and Marshall ran a season-high 20 pass routes last week (playing a season-high 40 offensive snaps). Marshall has a tough drop on a long pass that alone would have put him over this number last week (his only drop) so one would think his expanded role without Robbie Anderson will continue.

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Anytime Touchdown Props

I think I like Foreman the best when considering his odds since Chuba Hubbard will be out and Foreman will get all of the work he can handle. The Falcons have allowed seven rushing touchdowns this season and Hubbard is coming off a game where he had 145 yards from scrimmage. He's capable of handling all three downs and should get all of the goal-line work.

I know Greg Dortch got the touchdown last week but he only ran 15 routes compared to Moore's 30. I realize Robbie Anderson should be in the mix this week but Moore has a better rapport with Kyler Murray and as a result should get a higher number of targets, especially in the red zone. Moore has a red zone target in every game this season including two inside of the 10 and one inside of the five.

I get the Dolphins probably aren't going to call a lot of running plays for Tua given his injury this season but he did run four times last week against the Steelers. Over the past two seasons, he's had six rushing touchdowns in 23 games (26 percent of his games) so if he has that percentage of scoring in Detroit, +600 is good odds. Throw in this is supposed to be a high scoring game with an over/under of 51.5 and the Dolphins a four-points favorite and those odds seem even better.

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