top of page

NFL DFS Picks on FanDuel: Week 3

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the plays who look good in a salary vs. projected point standpoint. We're not taking into account projected roster rate, as these can be the core players in cash lineups (and potentially tournaments).

  • Mike Williams vs. JAX ($7,000)

Williams has already showcased his wide range of outcomes, putting up 2 and 20 FD points in two games this season. He should project well in a matchup against Jacksonville, as this could be the (relatively) sneaky spot to grab players in a high-scoring offensive environment. There's not much to take away from his numbers due to the absence of Keenan Allen in Week 2, but it would be a shock to see him completely uninvolved in the offense as he was in Week 1. The primary caveat to all of this is to watch the status of Justin Herbert, who is dealing with a rib injury but is likely to play.

  • Leonard Fournette vs. Packers ($7,200)

Fournette has 49 touches in two games, only out-paced by Joe Mixon on a per-game basis. At least in the short term, it's a good bet that he'll continue to get that type of usage while the Buccaneers wait for their receiving corps to return to health and from suspension. Despite this, Fournette is priced at a significant discount as compared to other workhorse options such as Mixon ($8,200) himself. Volume alone is enough to make Fournette a value, but the Packers defense also ranks 30th in Rush DVOA early on this season.

  • Kirk Cousins vs. Detroit ($7,600)

Cousins is coming off a dud performance, which doesn't make this the most comfortable recommendation. However, that has little predictive value, and Cousins steps into a great spot to produce in Week 3. The Lions got trampled by Jalen Hurts in Week 1, which is nothing to be ashamed of, and then allowed Carson Wentz to throw three touchdowns and top 300 passing yards last Sunday. Other Cash-Game Options QB Derek Carr ($7,100) at Titans QB Trevor Lawrence ($7,000) at Chargers RB Dalvin Cook ($8,300) vs. Lions RB David Montgomery ($7,100) vs. Texans RB Aaron Jones ($7,000) at Buccaneers WR Brandin Cooks ($7,300) at Bears WR Drake London ($6,200) at Seahawks WR Greg Dortch ($5,100) vs. Rams TE Zach Ertz ($5,200) vs. Rams D/ST Saints ($4,300) at Panthers D/ST Raiders ($3,400) at Titans Passing Game Stacks Stacks are most often used in tournament contests because it's an easy way to rack up points quickly. There is some risk involved, because if a stack fails to meet expectations the lineup generally doesn't have a great chance to cash. However, if you believe in a game environment strongly, it's also a way to minimize risk because stacking allows correlation among related players rather than trying to pick out nine individual players to hit at the level needed for a top spot in a tournament contest. Detroit Lions (23.5) at Minnesota Vikings (29) Lions The Lions are tied with the Dolphins for the most implied points among the underdogs on the main slate. That immediately makes them an attractive passing game to attack, as does the fact that their targets are condensed around Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800). DJ Chark ($5,500) is a secondary value option, as he has accounted for 36 percent of the team's air yards. He's converted only four of his 12 targets into catches (including no catches on four targets last week) but he has had more involvement in the offense than his surface stats suggest — he was targeted deep twice last week and targeted once in the end zone. Jared Goff ($7,100) has proven capable of getting the ball to St. Brown in particular, as he already has eight completions of more than 20 yards in two games. Vikings The Vikings are tied with the Bills for the highest implied point total of any team on the main slate. Through two weeks, Justin Jefferson ($9,500) leads the league with a 52 percent share of his team's air yards. Unlike recent seasons, the Vikings are taking to the air aggressively, as they own the fourth-highest passing rate over expected. There aren't many other exciting pass-catching options, which is both a positive and a negative. Adam Thielen ($6,000) is very touchdown reliant late in his career, but he's the only other player on the roster with multiple targets inside the 10-yard line in addition to Jefferson. Despite these positive factors, Kirk Cousins' ($7,600) dud on Monday Night Football could keep the roster rates deflated. Favorite Stack: QB Cousins + WR Jefferson + St. Brown Buffalo Bills (29) at Miami Dolphins (23.5) Bills The Bills offense has looked unstoppable through two games, almost entirely due to the work of Josh Allen ($9,000). He's priced accordingly. The case for Stefon Diggs ($8,300) will also be covered, but Gabe Davis ($7,200), who is expected to return in Week 3, deserves some love. While it wasn't noticeable in the outcome of the game, the Bills missed Davis against the Titans, as they were forced to rely on Jake Kumerow as their secondary outside receiver. That suggests there's no risk of Davis being taken off the field consistently, assuming his health cooperates. Davis also showcased his big-play ability in Week 1 by converting five targets into 88 yards and a touchdown. No other pass catcher has emerged as a consistent threat, which gives us a high level of concentration in the best offense in the league. Dolphins There remains debate about the quality of quarterback play that Tua Tagovailoa ($7,300) is capable of providing. What he's shown through two weeks, however, is that he can sustain the fantasy production of both Jaylen Waddle ($7,500) and Tyreek Hill ($8,400). No player on the roster has a double-digit target rate besides Hill and Waddle. In addition, the Dolphins have the fourth-highest pass rate this season and will almost certainly be in a game environment conducive to racking up fantasy points regardless of whether they pull an upset over the Bills. Favorite Stack: QB Allen + WR Diggs + WR Waddle Favorite Stack: QB Allen + WR Diggs + WR Davis + WR Waddle Favorite Stack: QB Tagovailoa + WR Hill + WR Davis Other Stacks to Consider QB Justin Herbert ($8,200) + WR Mike Williams ($7,000) + WR Christian Kirk ($7,100) QB Kyler Murray ($7,800) + WR Cooper Kupp ($9,800) + WR Greg Dortch ($5,100) QB Jalen Hurts ($8,100) + WR A.J. Brown ($8,100) + WR Jahan Dotson ($6,000) QB Patrick Mahomes ($8,700) + Travis Kelce ($7,800) + Michael Pittman ($7,400) QB Joe Burrow ($7,500) + Tee Higgins ($7,300) + Garrett Wilson ($6,100) High-Priced Heroes

  • Stefon Diggs at Dolphins ($8,300)

Diggs has proven through two games that he has as high of a ceiling as any receiver in the league. For the first time, he could be facing an opposing offense that can keep pace with the Bills, which could mean even more volume. Like Fournette, these factors don't appear to be accounted for properly in pricing, as Diggs remains more than $1,000 cheaper than most of his fellow elite receivers.

  • Jalen Hurts at Commanders ($8,100)

Hurts is priced aggressively, but he's still at the bottom of the elite tier of quarterbacks. We all knew that Hurts was a capable rusher coming into the season, but he has also been extremely accurate as a passer (league-low 7.9 percent bad pass rate). The Eagles have among the highest totals on the slate and likely will want to pile up points as they take on Carson Wentz in a revenge game. Honorable Mention: RB Joe Mixon ($8,200), CIN @ NYJ Fading the Field David Montgomery vs. HOU ($7,100) Montgomery is in a good spot to produce on paper. He's the lead back in Chicago, he has a weak matchup against the Texans and this might one of the few games all season that the Bears are favored. However, he's expected to reach about a 20 percent roster rate, and at that point I'd rather pass given the state of the entire Chicago offense. It's hard to imagine Montgomery going for more than 100 total yards and two scores, which is what it would take to bury those who fade him. The Bargain Bin QB Mac Jones vs BAL ($6,400) QB Trevor Lawrence at LAC ($7,000) RB Raheem Mostert vs. BUF ($5,500) RB Dameon Pierce at CHI ($5,800) WR Greg Dortch vs. LAR ($5,100) WR Joshua Palmer vs. JAC ($5,600) WR Treylon Burks vs. LV ($5,900) TE Irv Smith vs. DET ($5,000) TE Evan Engram at LAC ($5,200) TE Logan Thomas vs. PHI ($5,400) D/ST Arizona Cardinals vs. LAR ($3,000) D/ST Las Vegas at TEN ($3,400) Injuries to Monitor There are several spots to monitor as always, but the Tampa Bay receiving corps is the one to keep the closest eye on and likely the one to come down to Sunday morning. Nearly the entire depth chart has some type of injury designation aside from Scotty Miller, and the team also added Cole Beasley. Value will emerge, but at this point it is too early to pinpoint exactly where.

46 views0 comments


bottom of page