Dallas Cowboys -1.5 at Minnesota Vikings
This line seems a bit fishy given the Vikings are 8-1 and playing at home where they are 4-0 this season. I don't think the Vikings are as good as their record and I also think the Cowboys are better than theirs (6-3). So facts to back that up are each team's point differential; the Cowboys are +47 while the Vikings are only +35. The Cowboys' losses have been respectable too - Tampa, Philadelphia, and at the Packers.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Here's another divisional game with the Steelers being at home and getting points. Najee Harris may finally be getting things going after rushing for a season-high 99 yards last week and Kenny Pickett has rushed for 88 yards over his last two games. While it seems like a long time ago, the Steelers did win this Week 1 matchup in Cincinnati and that was with Mitch Trubisky under center.
Nick Chubb OVER 74.5 Rushing Yards
The Bills gave up 119 yards on the ground to Dalvin Cook last week and 174 rushing yards to the Jets the week before. The Bills will be without defensive starters Tremaine Edmunds, Greg Rousseau and potentially Jordan Poyer. Chubb has gone over this number in seven out of nine games this season and the two times he was under he had season-lows of 11 and 12 carries in those two contests. Weather won't play a factor in a dome and the key here is the Browns keeping the game close and no abandoning the running attack.
Saquon Barkley OVER 99.5 Rushing Yards
This is the biggest line I've considered this week for running back props but I think a big day is in store for Saquon. He's coming off a 152-yard effort against the Houston Texans who allow the most rushing yards per game at 181.1. The Detroit Lions happens to give up the second-most rushing yards per game (160.9) so it's another elite matchup for Barkley. We could easily see a top-5 effort for the season out of Barkley in this one.
Allen Robinson OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards
Life after Cooper Kupp starts this week for the Rams and they may be finally forced to give targets to Robinson. He's their best healthy receiver and has gone over this mark in two of his last four games playing opposite of Kupp. The Saints are still without Marshon Lattimore and rank 21st against opposing wide receivers this season.
David Montgomery -115
The Bears will be without the services of Khalil Mack this week which should increase Montgomery's workload. This game has a healthy over/under of 49.5 (with the Falcons 3-point favorites) suggesting the Bears score around 24 points. The hope here is the threat of Justin Fields(+100 anytime TD) opens up some holes for Montgomery. I can see parlaying Montgomery's anytime TD odds with over 69.5 rushing yards here for +184 odds.
George Kittle +175
The Cardinals have been one of the worst teams in the league against opposing tight ends and it likely won't get better facing Kittle Monday night. To be specific, the Cardinals give up .70 touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends show that if this rate continues, these are really good odds to take. Kittle is coming off a 2-1-21 line (all season-lows) so some "progression" to the mean is likely in this one especially against the team that is 31st overall against opposing tight ends.
I'm mentioning both of these players for a few reasons. You can hedge and take both, needing only one of them to score to win. Hinton is also not a sure thing this week as he's dealing with a shoulder injury. Virgil, a rookie out of Appalachian State, has one catch this season that went for a 66-yard touchdown. This shows what a highly efficient receiver he is. Seriously, Courtland Sutton is going to attract a lot of attention and without Jerry Jeudy, Russell Wilson will have to target other receivers.