Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. New York Giants
It was only last season I made the journey to Jacksonville to watch my beloved Bill take on the Jaguars only to see them fall in an offensive-less game, 9-6. Fast forward to this season and I think it's a completely different scenario. I think Jacksonville is very good with a young quarterback on the rise and while they have a 2-4 record, they also have a +24 point differential. I think the Giant have been a bit lucky at 5-1 and going on the road against a team that can somewhat neutralize Saquon Barkley, I'll lay the points and take the home team. Plus, it's an Evan Engram revenge game.
Denver Broncos ML (-116) vs. New York Jets
You can take the money line at -116 or the point spread (-1, -110) but I don't want to risk the push for that little if the Broncos win by only one (it's the weekend and I'm not going to figure out the exact mathematics/probability of it). I seem to be picking on New York teams, I mean New Jersey teams, this week and the Jets are in a similar situation to the Giants. I think they've also been a bit lucky and once teams figure out to take away their running backs and force Zack Wilson to beat them, the losses could come in bunches for New York. Denver's offense isn't completely broken, the defense is still very good and they're playing in the thin air the Broncos are used to.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions OVER 48.5 Points
I rarely dabble in over/under in this space unless I see something I like. In fact, if memory serves me correctly the only over/under I took this season was the over on the Tampa/Kansas City game which easily worked out. The Lions can put up points (140 for through five games) but also give up a ton of points (170, 34 PPG) as well. Dak Prescott is returning under center and has a pretty good rapport with wide receivers Ceedee Lamb and Michael Gallup (more on that later). I think this will be a shootout and think the alternative total points are worth taking a look at.
NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 7
Jimmy Garoppolo OVER 247.5 (-130) Passing Yards - The Chiefs have a high-octane offense but they also have a defense that allows 266 passing yards per game this season. I like that the Chiefs have to travel to San Francisco to play in this one and should Christian McCaffrey suit up for this one (it'll be silly if he doesn't), it adds another pass-catching weapon to the offense. I can see Jimmy G. completing a lot of short passes to Deebo Samuel and CMC, each of which can take it to the house any time. George Kittle is completely healthy and Brandon Aiyuk provides a threat on the outside. This is the prop I like the best this week.
Aaron Jones OVER 55.5 Rushing Yards - There's a lot of talk about regression to the mean but I also think there's "progression" to the mean as well. Aaron Jones only had nine carries last week and had averaged 14 over the previous four games. The Commanders are a good team to target for running backs as they're allowing 131.7 rushing yards per game. If Jones can get to that 14 carries mark, all he'll need to average if 4.0 yards per carry to hit the over here.
Tyler Boyd Longest Reception OVER 18.5 Yards - This is the first time I've dipped my toes in these waters but hear me out. Atlanta ranks 29th against opposing receivers and it's a given they'll be keyed in on Ja'Marr Chase, especially coming off his big game. Boyd has games with a reception of at least 20 yards in four out of six games this season and the Bengals run a lot of three-wide receiver sets that he's part of.
Anytime Touchdown Props
Mike Williams +100, LAC - I love taking players coming off a bad game and the Seahawks have been pretty terrible on defense thus far. Seattle has allowed two passing touchdowns on average over their last three games and it'll be a tough job to keep that number down on the road against the Chargers. The potential return of Keenan Allen doesn't move the needle either way for me here.
Michael Gallup +185, Dalton Schultz +240, DAL - Ceedee Lamb is -115 so I like going with the better odds and taking both Gallup and Schultz. I only need one of them to score to profit and it's well within reason that they both could score. This is completely based on Dak Prescott being back under center this week as he's always relied on Schultz (eight touchdowns last season) and Gallup likely hasn't reached his potential yet (11 touchdowns between 2019 and 2020 seasons).
Cade Otton +360, TB - Here we are in Week 7 and of course, like we all thought, Otton has similar anytime touchdown odds to DJ Moore (+330) in this game. With the injury to Cameron Brate, Otton has become the de facto top tight end and has 14 targets from Tom Brady over the last three weeks. Tampa's over/under team point total is at 26.5 so they should score at least two touchdowns. Look for Otton to be this week's Greg Dulcich.