Last week was a good week but could have been a fantastic week had George Kittle kept his second foot in bounds and scored a touchdown. As it was, I didn't lose any of my game bets with the Bills and Vikings pushing, and the Bucs/Chiefs easily going over 46.5 points. DK Metcalf and Mike Evans easily went over their receiving props (and before the fourth quarter) while Rashaad Penny and Michael Gallup (+480!) both scored their first touchdowns of the season. Let's see what looks good for Week 5.
BET NOW $1,000 No Sweat First Bet Must be 21+ to participate. T&Cs apply.
If you're not yet signed up at FanDuel Sportsbook, take advantage of a $1,000 no-sweat first bet offer.
NFL Week 5 Best Bets
Minnesota Vikings -7 vs. Chicago Bears
I feel kind of silly taking Minnesota again but this pick is more about fading the Bears and Justin Fields. Minnesota should be stacking the line to make Fields beat them and only way the Bears keep this close is if their defense comes up big. The Vikings' offense has a ton of upside and could easily put up 30-plus points in this one. Justin Fields hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in three games and has a mediocre 7.0 yards per pass attempt this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay still has one of the best defenses in the league; fact is, Patrick Mahomes and company can hang a lot of points on anyone on any given day. This is a much easier task for Tom Brady as Atlanta's defense has allowed at least 20 points in each of its first four games and the offense will be without Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson. I think this one will be a blowout that could be over by halftime.
Cincinnati Bengals/Baltimore Ravens OVER 47.5 Points
I love a few factors about this game. Both teams are coming off games where the under hit (that might sound weird, but it's a regression/progression to the mean thing for me) and both of defenses are pretty bad. I think we get a lot of fireworks from both offenses and this game makes up for the snooze-fest from Thursday night. Both of these team have combined to score 210 points this season and using my Euclid-like math skills that works out to 52.5 points per game.
NFL Player Props for Week 5
Trevor Lawrence OVER 246.5 Passing Yards
Lawrence has gone over this mark in two of four games this season and is a touchdown favorite at home against the Texans. While the Texans pass defense has been stellar, they've played against Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields and Justin Herbert. Any guesses which quarterback had the best game against Houston? Obviously, it was Herbert (340 passing yards, two touchdowns), so I'd expect a big day out of Lawrence at home.
Dalton Schultz OVER 32.5 Receiving Yards
This is a weird "over" as Schultz had zero receiving yards last week despite getting three targets. The good news is he played 51 snaps, so it appears he's close if not 100 percent healthy. The Rams on the road aren't the greatest matchup, but their pass rush could mean Cooper Rush will look to get rid of the ball quicker, which should mean more targets for Schultz.
Gabe Davis OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards
Davis logged full practices this week for the first time since Week 1, meaning he's pretty close to being 100 percent healthy. The Bills should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field as two-touchdown favorites at home. The rest of the receiving corps behind Stefon Diggs and Daivs is pretty banged up; this could easily result in Josh Allen narrowing the receiving tree and relying more heavily on Diggs and Davis. Look for a big game out of Gabe and I like a same game parlay with the over for receiving yards and his anytime touchdowns odds (+120).
Anytime Touchdown Props
Chris Godwin +120
As already mentioned the Buccaneers are expected to score a lot of points in this one (their team over/under is a lofty 28.5), and Godwin is a good choice to find the end zone. It was encouraging to see Brady target him 10 times last week and he doesn't have an injury designation for the first time this season. It helps that Atlanta is 26th against the position to start the season and I don't mind a same game parlay with Godwin's yardage and an anytime touchdown.
Damien Harris -125
If you've been reading this space this season you'll know I hate taking negative odds. However, this week we have Harris, who had 15 rushing touchdowns last season, against the league's worst run defense. The news of Mac Jones being downgraded to doubtful means Bailey Zappe should be under center. Expect something crazy like 40 rushing attempts out of the New England backfield. Rhamondre Stevenson is +120 for an anytime touchdown and Harris is +500 for 2-plus touchdowns, in case you were wondering.
Treylon Burks is set to miss his first game of the season and that should mean an increased role for both Kyle Phillips (+600) and NWI. I actually don't mind taking both at these odds, as it's both a hedge while creating a high ceiling if they both find the end zone. The Commanders are a good matchup as they are dead last in the league in allowing fantasy points to wide receivers.