Minnesota Vikings -3 vs. New Orleans Saints
I get the feeling the Saints are mailing this one in being a game across the pond in England. Michael Thomas has already been ruled out and Alvin Kamara is only averaging 1.7 yards per target. Dalvin Cook is set to start and I think the Vikings offense won't have a problem moving the ball up and down the field. Here's a good spot to get some action in while you enjoy your Sunday morning coffee (or tea) and breakfast.
Buffalo Bills -3 at Baltimore Ravens
The Bills got bitten by the heat bug last week in Miami and this week won't have to worry about that. The Ravens' defense has looked awful thus far and it's doubtful they have an answer for Josh Allen and company. The Bills beat these same Ravens in the Divisional Round of the playoffs in 2020 17-3, limiting Lamar Jackson to 162 passing yards and only 38 yards rushing (3.8 yards per carry). Buffalo is also getting back a few starters off the injury report which should greatly help their cause.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 45.5
I thought this over/under would be over 42 but very close to that number. Tom Brady will get Mike Evans back this week and Russell Gage showed he's capable of handling the No.2 wide receiver role last week. Kansas City's offense is unlikely to get shut down two weeks in a row and Tom Brady should be able to put up points at home, especially as a one-point favorite. The Chiefs' defense is nowhere close to being as good as Green Bay so look for Tampa to put some point on the board Sunday night.
NFL Player Props For Week 4
Mike Evans OVER 69.5 Receiving Yards
The rumor of me curling up in the fetal position and crying last Sunday may have some truth to it after Elijah Moore finished with 49 receiving yards and I was all over the over at 49.5 (don't think for a second I'm not going back to him this week, just wait...). Here is my favorite prop of the week and initially I put this number around 80 receiving yards given the likelihood of him seeing double-digit targets this week. Evans is the only significant Tampa receiver who isn't carrying an injury designation as Julio Jones, Russell Gage and Chris Godwin are all listed as questionable. Don't be surprised if the over here hits by halftime.
DK Metcalf OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards
This is probably the best matchup Metcalf has had this season as the Lions are 25th in the league against opposing wide receivers. This game has a healthy over/under at 47.5 points and Lions are only 3.5-point favorites. The 12 targets Metcalf got last week were a positive sign and the Seahawks would be wise to replicate that number this week.
Elijah Moore Same Game Parlay +457, Anytime Touchdown Scorer +310, Over 42.5 Receiving yards (-122)
It makes perfect sense to think if Moore gets an anytime touchdown, it's likely going over his receiving yards will go with it. I would double up on last week's loss and if I lose again this week, it'll be the old "fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me" saying if he doesn't hit this week. I love the +457 odds here and you can always go with the alternative receiving yards option for him to increase those odds even Moore (see what I did there?).
Anytime Touchdown Props
Rashaad Penny +150
Penny is overdue for a score after being held out of the end zone the first three weeks. Detroit is an excellent team to pick on as they've allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs to start the season. Penny got 15 touches last week and will still be the goal line back over Kenneth Walker once Seattle gets the ball inside of the five.
George Kittle +185
Kittle got five targets in his return to the field last week and one of those was in the red zone. He's had 11 touchdowns playing with Jimmy Garoppolo in 2021 and 2019 so there's clearly a rapport between the two in the red zone. The 49ers are a slight favorite in this game (-1.5) and are expected to score around 21 points. Look for Kittle to be one of those scored come Monday night.
Michael Gallup +480
I love these odds and even with Cooper Rush at quarterback, I think it's way too high. Gallup has a 1,000-yard receiving season under his belt and should benefit from seeing softer coverage playing opposite CeeDee Lamb. He carries no injury designation and should be pretty close to 100 percent considering how the Cowboys have handled his injury.